De la Espriella (left) won the first round over Iván Cepeda (right), an ally of Petro. Image: Andres Lozano/LongVisual/ZUMA Press/picture alliance | Luisa Gonzalez/Reuters

Between peace negotiations and a hard-line security policy, social reforms and a smaller state: Colombia’s runoff election will determine the country’s direction and could have repercussions throughout the region.

By Gabriel Gonzalez Zorrilla (Deutsche Welle)

HAVANA TIMES — Colombia is facing one of the most important elections in its recent history. In the presidential runoff, two politicians with completely opposing visions of the state, security, and society are competing: left-wing senator and human rights advocate Ivan Cepeda, and far-right lawyer and businessman Abelardo de la Espriella.

For many observers, this goes far beyond choosing a successor to current president Gustavo Petro. The election is seen as a decision on whether Colombia will continue along the path of recent years, with social reforms and negotiations with armed groups, or move toward a much more conservative, security-focused model. For that reason, Sabine Kurtenbach, acting president of the GIGA Institute in Hamburg, described it to DW as an election that “will set the course.”

A Country Between Change and Disillusionment

Colombia is going through a period of political transformation. In 2022, Gustavo Petro became the first left-wing candidate to win the presidency. His government promised social reforms, greater inclusion of marginalized groups, implementation of the peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas, and a new strategy for dealing with armed groups.

The results have been mixed. According to Colombia expert Viviana Garcia Pinzon, a researcher at the Arnold Bergstraesser Institute in Freiburg, which specializes in transregional studies, progress has been made in reducing poverty, restoring land rights, and promoting social inclusion. At the same time, several key reforms have failed or have only been partially implemented.

She is especially critical of the peace policy. According to Garcia Pinzon, the “total peace” strategy has not achieved its goals or significantly reduced violence against civilians.

Kurtenbach agrees. Petro campaigned on a “very progressive and socially transformative agenda,” but “promised a lot and delivered very little.” She particularly criticizes the lack of strategy and implementation in peace policy. This has generated “anger and disappointment,” even among many of the government’s supporters. In this context, the election is also being viewed as a referendum on Petro’s political legacy.

Who Is Iván Cepeda?

Iván Cepeda, 63, is one of the best-known figures on Colombia’s left. Unlike Petro, he does not come from a guerrilla background but from the human rights movement. Garcia Pinzon describes him as a politician who “has always operated within institutional and legal frameworks.” His political career has been marked by “a very strong commitment to human rights.”

Cepeda is the son of left-wing senator Manuel Cepeda Vargas, who was assassinated in 1994. For years, he has worked toward overcoming political violence and has participated in peace talks with both the FARC and the ELN guerrilla groups.

Politically, he advocates continuing key elements of Petro’s agenda: expanded social programs, implementation of the peace agreement, negotiations with armed groups, and a socio-ecological transformation of the country. Phasing out fossil fuels is also one of his top priorities.

His challenge in the campaign is that many voters see him as competent but not particularly charismatic. Kurtenbach describes him as a serious politician who struggles to inspire strong emotions.

Iván Cepeda was considered the favorite in most polls before Colombia’s first-round presidential election, but Abelardo de la Espriella surprised observers by winning 43.74 percent of the vote to 40.90% for Cepeda.

Who Is Abelardo de la Espriella?

Abelardo de la Espriella, is almost the exact opposite of Cepeda. This lawyer and businessman was barely known before the campaign began. Now, however, he leads the polls.

His political profile reminds many observers of the new right emerging in Latin America and the United States. Garcia Pinzon places him alongside figures such as US President Trump, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, and Argentina’s Javier Milei. She notes that he is not a traditional career politician but has very close ties to economic and political elites.

His campaign relies heavily on social media, dramatic public appearances, and forceful messaging. De la Espriella promises a leaner state, a stronger private sector, and an uncompromising approach toward armed groups. Among his supporters are Donald Trump, Javier Milei, and Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa.

According to Garcia Pinzon, many of his supporters see him as embodying a model of success based on “prosperity, strength, and the traditional family model.” At the same time, she warns of political developments that could take on authoritarian characteristics. De la Espriella represents “a kind of right-wing politics that Colombia has never experienced before.”

Peace or a Hard-Line Approach?

Few issues shape Colombia’s election more than security. Despite the 2016 peace agreement, many regions continue to suffer from the presence of armed groups, drug trafficking, and violence.

Here, the candidates differ dramatically. While Cepeda favors negotiations and the continuation of the peace process, de la Espriella advocates a “hard-line” policy. He has announced plans to end talks with guerrilla groups and move closer to the security model used by Bukele in El Salvador.

For Kurtenbach, that path carries considerable risks. While peace efforts have not been entirely successful, she warns against ending them abruptly. Colombia’s structural problems remain unresolved.

“A new cycle of violence is approaching,” she says.

Garcia Pinzon also fears escalation. The idea of resolving political conflicts exclusively through military means could intensify polarization and spread violence beyond armed groups to society as a whole.

Implications for the Region

The election is being closely watched throughout Latin America. According to Garcia Pinzon, what is at stake is not only Colombia’s future but also the political direction of the region.

In foreign policy, the two candidates would likely take very different approaches. De la Espriella is viewed as strongly pro-USA.

“Abelardo de la Espriella clearly follows Trump’s line,” says Kurtenbach.

A victory for the far right would shift Latin America’s political balance further to the right. Conservative presidents who support de la Espriella, such as Milei in Argentina and Noboa in Ecuador, are already in power.

If Cepeda wins, Colombia would likely strengthen cooperation with the left-wing governments of Brazil and Mexico and continue seeking negotiated solutions to conflicts rather than military ones.

More Than an Ordinary Election

Regardless of the outcome, Colombia faces enormous challenges: persistent violence, social inequality, a fragmented party system, and an increasingly polarized society.

The two candidates are currently in a statistical tie. According to experts, it remains unclear who will win Sunday’s runoff election. For Kurtenbach, voter turnout among each candidate’s supporters may ultimately prove decisive.

First published in Spanish by Deutsche Welle and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.

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