William Klein worked for more than two decades as a US diplomat, including in several senior roles at the United States’ embassy in Beijing from 2016 to 2021. He worked at the American Institute in Taiwan and on the US State Department’s China desk in Washington, and occupied US diplomatic posts in South Asia, the Middle East and the former Soviet Union. He is based in the Berlin office of FGS Global, a strategic advisory and communications firm.

Since the Busan summit [in South Korea on October 30], we have had a truce in the US-China relationship. I wouldn’t call it an armistice. I certainly wouldn’t call it a peace treaty. Both sides clearly have a common interest in not allowing the relationship to deteriorate any further. So the most important outcome of President Trump’s visit to China, whenever it may take place, will be the two sides reinforcing their interest in containing the competition in the relationship, preventing things from going off the rails, or from getting worse.

We will certainly see a reaffirmation of the commitments made in Busan with respect to export controls, tariffs, things of this nature. I expect other commercial announcements, like further purchase agreements on the part of China, such as for agricultural goods or commercial aircraft.

The big question will be: will the two sides announce further measures to loosen some of the export controls or reduce some of the tariffs? It is very difficult to predict.

My conversation with both American and Chinese government stakeholders suggests that expectations for the visit are modest. Still, this visit is important for the further trajectory of the US-China relationship.