While China has already logged a record-breaking trade surplus in the first 11 months of 2025, that milestone could be a harbinger of more protectionist pushback, an American research firm said on Monday – a development that could complicate the country’s efforts to meet its economic growth target in 2026.
Though export performance remains the “most important” variable for China’s real economic growth rate next year, trade measures adopted by other countries and weaker demand will also have an impact, according to Rhodium Group co-founder Daniel Rosen.
Changes to external demand and inventory restocking in developed economies – which the International Monetary Fund expects will see a continuous slowdown in 2026 – remain risks to China’s export hopes according to Monday’s report from Rhodium, which Rosen co-authored.
In particular, Europe or emerging markets could “push back more strongly” against Chinese trade practices, he said, building on or augmenting restrictions that have already been placed on imports of the country’s goods.
In the first 11 months of 2025, China’s trade surplus surpassed the US$1 trillion benchmark set in the whole of last year – an achievement Rosen attributed to the country’s endeavours to diversify its trade and the depreciation of the real exchange rate, a trend he said was consistent with domestic deflationary pressures.
“These lower prices have allowed China to diversify its exports away from the United States,” Rosen added.
