Political and social analysts argue that Cambodia’s entrenched family-based power structure within the ruling Cambodian People’s Party is creating significant obstacles to the independence of Prime Minister Hun Manet, raising concerns about future political stability if Hun Sen is no longer able to act as the central power broker.

A geopolitical analyst focused on the Asia Pacific region, Seng Vanly, wrote on Facebook that when Hun Sen can no longer serve as the key pillar holding the system together, both Hun Manet and the country could face a range of high-risk scenarios in the years ahead.

Seng Vanly warned that one possible outcome is internal fragmentation, noting that Hun Sen remains the only figure widely feared and respected by senior officials and influential political families. Without him, rival networks would have been able to compete for power.

He also pointed to what he described as the limited authority of Hun Manet as prime minister. The current cabinet, he said, reflects a network-based distribution of power dominated by the children and relatives of senior officials, each backed by their own family patronage. This, he argued, could lead to policy paralysis or selective compliance with directives, weakening law enforcement and national policymaking.

Another risk highlighted was an unprepared political transition. Seng Vanly said state institutions such as the courts and parliament have been used primarily to serve those in power, leaving them unable to function as stabilising safeguards in times of leadership crisis.

To avoid these dangers, he argued that Cambodia must shift from personalised rule to governance based on laws and institutions. This would include strengthening the independence of the legislative, executive, and judicial branches, ensuring transparent administrative procedures, and allowing greater public participation.

Seng Vanly stressed that peace dependent on a single individual is inherently fragile. He said lasting stability can only come from trust in state institutions and respect for the rule of law, which he described as essential for Hun Manet and Cambodia to overcome current political vulnerabilities.

Observers also note that more than two years into his term, Hun Manet has yet to exercise full authority as prime minister independently, with major decisions still seen as coming from Hun Sen, his father.

Hun Sen, however, said on August 23, 2025, that Hun Manet’s two years in office had been sufficient for him to gain a solid understanding of national leadership and governance across all sectors of government at both national and subnational levels.

Despite this, Soeng Senkaruna, head of the Khmer Democracy Organization, said recent assessments of Hun Manet’s tenure suggest his leadership remains largely directed by Hun Sen rather than driven by his own authority and decision-making.