Key Points

• USD/BRL held near R$5.20 after the Fed kept rates unchanged and signaled ongoing uncertainty.
• The dollar firmed globally, yet Brazil’s real stayed strong on flow and high carry expectations.
• Charts show a heavy downtrend, with oversold momentum and a tight support zone around 5.17–5.20.

USD/BRL entered Thursday’s session stable near R$5.20, after a volatile “Super Wednesday” that failed to produce a rebound.

The spot market closed Wednesday at R$5.2066, still the lowest closing level since May 2024. During the session, the dollar briefly traded below R$5.20.

The global dollar recovered even as the real did not give back ground. By late afternoon in Brazil, the dollar index rose about 0.32% to 96.530.

That divergence matters. It suggests the real’s strength was not only “weak dollar” mechanics. It was also about local positioning and the appeal of holding Brazilian rates.

Fed Pause Lifts The Dollar Index, But USD/BRL Stays Pinned Near R$5.20. (Photo Internet reproduction)

Policy drove the day. The Fed held its benchmark rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, as widely expected. The decision was again not unanimous.

Fed Split And FX Remain Under Pressure

Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted for a quarter-point cut. That split reinforced the view of a central bank under political cross-currents.

In its statement, the Fed said uncertainty around the U.S. outlook remains elevated. Powell also said December inflation was likely still well above the 2% target.

He pointed to goods inflation linked to tariffs, while noting services disinflation appears to be continuing. Markets also kept one eye on shutdown risk, after last year’s 43-day stoppage disrupted data releases.

In Brazil, attention shifted to the Copom decision due after the local close. The baseline was a steady Selic at 15%, with any hint of easing in March carrying outsized impact for FX.

The charts show why traders stayed cautious about calling a bottom. On the daily chart, price printed around 5.1969, with RSI near 26. That is deeply oversold. MACD stayed negative, with a widening bearish spread.

The 4-hour chart showed RSI near 29 and a persistent sell pressure profile. The weekly candle remained heavy, with RSI in the mid-30s and price near the week’s lows.

Support sits at 5.17–5.20. Resistance starts near 5.23–5.25, then 5.29–5.30. A bounce is plausible. A trend change is not yet visible.