Today’s Key Themes

Ibovespa pause → Brazil stocks slipped 0.08% to 178,720.68 and broke a four-session record streak despite gains abroad. It ended a run of four straight record closes after a fast climb into the high 170,000s that had started to look one-way.

Vale fell almost 3% after a mine incident involving a spill of water and sediment from a pit at the Fábrica mine in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, with the material reaching areas of CSN Mineração nearby but no injuries or impact on surrounding communities.

This dragged the index lower on heavy volume with about 60,000 transactions and roughly R$2.2 billion ($407,000,000) in financial volume.

Charts still show a strong uptrend but momentum is overheated and pullbacks can accelerate, with 4-hour RSI around 81.65, daily RSI about 81.76, and weekly RSI around 81.11.

Immediate support is near 177,691 and 176,175, with deeper support at 174,114 and 172,053. Banks were mixed, limiting offset to Vale’s drag, while Petrobras preferred shares extended a streak to a seventh consecutive rise even as Brent was weaker.

Politics and macro added noise with a 50-minute call between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and U.S. President Donald Trump touching Venezuela, Trump’s proposed Peace Council, and organized crime.

Lula also agreed to visit Washington after trips to India and South Korea in February. Brazil’s trade balance showed a $252 million surplus in the fourth week of January.

Real holding firm → USD/BRL traded near R$5.281 early Tuesday after Monday’s close at R$5.2797 (down 0.12% to $975,000,000), extending a broader January slide with weekly price near 5.281 close to the week’s low zone around 5.262.

The dollar weakened globally on shutdown fears (Polymarket implying an 81% chance of a shutdown starting January 31, up from 9% on Friday, risking data delays and fresh volatility), geopolitics, and “Super Wednesday” rate bets with expected Fed hold at 3.50%–3.75% and Selic steady at 15%, plus guidance hinting at possible easing in March.

Charts show a downtrend that is tired, with weekly RSI near 40, daily RSI near 31, and four-hour RSI near 32, with MACD histogram turning slightly positive suggesting sellers are slowing. Support is at 5.26–5.28, with resistance at 5.31–5.33, then 5.38.

The White House signaled a major Trump economic statement due Tuesday. Brazil’s market moved with the world, with the real holding firm while investors kept looking for safety elsewhere, pushing precious metals higher.

Crypto stabilization → Bitcoin held near $88,200 after another failed push toward $89,000, with daily candle on Bitstamp printing O $88,247, H $88,880, L $88,114, and C $88,219, four-hour O $88,667, H $88,880, L $88,178, and C $88,228, and weekly O $86,568, H $88,880, L $86,422, and C $88,215, up about 1.9%.

The weekly candle turned green, but momentum remains weak and resistance is crowded. Price spent the session grinding in a tight band essentially flat, with the bounce getting sold and every push into the upper $88,000s meeting supply, buyers defending the dip but running out of follow-through.

Weekly RSI near 40 signals weak trend strength, daily RSI around low 40s shows stabilization but not power, and four-hour RSI in mid 40s reflects fragile rebound. MACD is below zero on weekly and daily, with the four-hour histogram positive but marking relief, not reversal.

Support is at $88,100, then high $87,000s, with break reopening $86,000s, while resistance is near $89,500, thickening into $90,000–$91,000.

Crypto’s near-term upside still depends on ETF flows and US policy clarity, with spot demand not returning convincingly. Rallies are depending on perps and short covering, with the main “clarity” bill stuck, keeping large allocators cautious.

If neither ETF inflows nor a US market-structure breakthrough arrives, then adoption headlines can rise while price drifts lower due to missing marginal buyers.

Gold/silver strength → Gold $5,060.36/oz up 0.9% with safe-haven demand staying strong as trade-tension headlines and dollar weakness kept buyers active, briefly topping $5,100 an ounce and settling near $5,082.50 up 2.06% on Comex; silver $108.05/oz up 4.0% with a tight physical market and momentum buying amplifying moves even as volatility stays extreme.

Nubank office bet → Nubank’s $475 million office bet signals a new phase for Brazil’s fintech giant.

Broader risk: Commodity momentum and real/equity rebounds ease EM pressure, but stretched gains, oversold conditions, and fintech/U.S. policy uncertainties could spur volatility; policy credibility anchors markets while cross-border political shocks remain wildcards.

Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 27, 2026. (Photo Internet reproduction)

Economic Agenda for January 27, 2026

Brazil

• 6:00 AM BRT – FGV Consumer confidence (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 90.2
• 7:00 AM BRT – Mid-Month CPI (MoM) (Jan) Cons: 0.22% Prev: 0.25%
• 7:00 AM BRT – Mid-Month CPI (YoY) (Jan) Cons: 4.52% Prev: 4.41%

Mexico

• 7:00 AM CST – Trade Balance (Dec) Cons: 1.640B Prev: 0.663B
• 7:00 AM CST – Trade Balance (USD) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -0.274B

United States

• 8:15 AM EST – ADP Employment Change Weekly Cons: – Prev: 8.00K
• 8:55 AM EST – Redbook (YoY) Cons: – Prev: 5.5%
• 9:00 AM EST – House Price Index (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.4%
• 9:00 AM EST – House Price Index (YoY) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 1.7%
• 9:00 AM EST – House Price Index (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 436.7
• 9:00 AM EST – S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 s.a. (MoM) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 0.3%
• 9:00 AM EST – S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: -0.3%
• 9:00 AM EST – S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 1.2% Prev: 1.3%
• 10:00 AM EST – CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) Cons: 90.6 Prev: 89.1
• 10:00 AM EST – Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jan) Cons: -5 Prev: -7
• 10:00 AM EST – Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Jan) Cons: – Prev: -11
• 10:00 AM EST – Richmond Services Index (Jan) Cons: – Prev: -6
• 10:30 AM EST – Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 0.1
• 10:30 AM EST – Texas Services Sector Outlook (Jan) Cons: – Prev: -3.3
• 1:00 PM EST – 5-Year Note Auction Cons: – Prev: 3.747%
• 1:00 PM EST – M2 Money Supply (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 22.30T
• 2:00 PM EST – U.S. President Trump Speaks
• 4:30 PM EST – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Cons: -0.700M Prev: 3.040M

EU

• 12:00 AM CET – Italian Car Registration (MoM) (Dec) Act: -13.0% Cons: – Prev: -1.4%
• 12:00 AM CET – Italian Car Registration (YoY) (Dec) Act: 2.3% Cons: – Prev: 0.0%
• 12:00 AM CET – German Car Registration (MoM) (Dec) Act: -1.7% Cons: – Prev: 0.2%
• 12:00 AM CET – German Car Registration (YoY) (Dec) Act: 9.7% Cons: – Prev: 2.5%
• 12:00 AM CET – French Car Registration (MoM) (Dec) Act: 30.1% Cons: – Prev: -4.7%
• 12:00 AM CET – French Car Registration (YoY) (Dec) Act: -5.8% Cons: – Prev: -0.3%
• 2:45 AM CET – French Consumer Confidence (Jan) Act: 90 Cons: 90 Prev: 90
• 3:00 AM CET – Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q4) Act: 9.93% Cons: 10.20% Prev: 10.45%
• 5:30 AM CET – German 2-Year Schatz Auction Cons: – Prev: 2.110%
• 12:00 PM CET – German Buba President Nagel Speaks
• 12:00 PM CET – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

UK

• 12:00 AM GMT – Car Registration (MoM) (Dec) Act: -3.2% Cons: – Prev: 4.3%
• 12:00 AM GMT – Car Registration (YoY) (Dec) Act: 3.9% Cons: – Prev: -1.6%

Implication: Brazil’s FGV Consumer Confidence gauges sentiment amid real strength and commodity bids, influencing spending and growth outlooks.

Mid-Month CPI tests the inflation trajectory for the Selic path, with consensus at a 0.23% monthly rise and 4.52% in 12 months, potentially easing pressure if met. Mexico’s Trade Balance data probe export/import health and external resilience for Banxico decisions.

U.S. ADP Employment/Redbook signal labor/retail trends ahead of Fed; House Price Indices/S&P/CS HPI track housing amid yields; CB Consumer Confidence/Richmond Indices/Dallas Fed/Texas Outlook assess sentiment/manufacturing/services; 5-Year Auction/M2 test funding/demand; Trump speech adds policy volatility; API Crude inventories influence energy.

EU car registrations reflect demand post-holidays; French Confidence/Spanish Unemployment inform growth/labor; Schatz Auction probes yields; Nagel/Lagarde speeches shape ECB nuance.

UK car registrations track auto/consumer activity. U.S./EU data dominate global tone amid commodity bids and dollar softness, with Super Wednesday anxiety keeping markets on edge.

Brazil’s Markets on Monday

Ibovespa -0.08% to 178,720.68, ending a run of four straight record closes. The move came after a fast climb into the high 170,000s that had started to look one-way.

Vale dropped almost 3% and became the most traded stock on the exchange, with about 60,000 transactions and roughly R$2.2 billion ($407,000,000) in financial volume.

The trigger was a spill of water and sediment from a pit at the Fábrica mine in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais. The material reached areas of CSN Mineração nearby. There were no injuries and no reported impact on surrounding communities.

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Commodity Markets

Palladium

Price: $1,953.69/oz, down 1.4%.
What’s happening: It is cooling after recent highs, with the haven bid concentrating more in gold and silver.

Platinum

Price: $2,647.39/oz, down 4.0%.
What’s happening: It is giving back part of yesterday’s record surge as traders take profits after a fast run-up.

Gold

Price: $5,060.36/oz, up 0.9%.
What’s happening: Safe-haven demand stayed strong as trade-tension headlines and dollar weakness kept buyers active.

Silver

Price: $108.05/oz, up 4.0%.
What’s happening: A tight physical market and momentum buying are amplifying moves, even as volatility stays extreme.

Copper

Price: $13,113/ton, down 0.53% (LME 3-month).
What’s happening: Tight stocks still matter, but the rally looks crowded, so dips trigger fast profit-taking.

Aluminum

Price: $3,165.5/ton, down 0.94% (LME 3-month).
What’s happening: It is easing from elevated levels, but structural tightness and tariff distortions still support the market.

Iron ore (62% Fe CFR futures)

Price: $106.15/ton, flat.
What’s happening: Prices are stuck as traders wait for clearer China steel-demand signals and contract negotiations stay noisy.

Currency

Brazilian Real → USD/BRL near R$5.281 after Monday’s close at R$5.2797; extending a broader January slide with weekly price near 5.281 close to the week’s low zone around 5.262; charts show a downtrend that is tired, with support at 5.26–5.28.

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Companies and Market

Brazil’s Ibovespa Pauses After Record Run As Vale Drop And Macro Risk Return

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Super Wednesday Anxiety Keeps The Dollar Soft As The Real Holds Near R$5.28

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Bitcoin Stabilizes Near $88,000 As Weak Demand Caps Every Bounce

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Nubank’s $475 Million Office Bet Signals A New Phase For Brazil’s Fintech Giant

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U.S. Markets on Monday

U.S. stocks started the week on a firm note ahead of major tech earnings and the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision.

The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,950.23, the Dow gained 0.6% to 49,412.40, and the Nasdaq added 0.4% to 23,601.36. Small caps lagged, with the Russell 2000 down 0.4% to 2,659.67.

The day’s louder signals came outside equities. Gold vaulted through $5,000 an ounce and briefly approached $5,100, reflecting a rush toward perceived safety alongside fresh doubts about the dollar’s direction and U.S. policy stability.

Sector-wise, energy services stood out after Baker Hughes posted stronger-than-expected results. Airlines were a soft spot as widespread flight cancellations weighed on the group. Investors also tracked a weakening dollar, especially against the yen, adding to the “risk-off” bid for precious metals.

Big picture: Monday looked like positioning for a high-volatility week, with mega-cap tech results and the Fed in focus, while metals and FX suggested elevated anxiety under the surface

Regional Peers — Mixed to Positive:

Colombia’s Peso Steadies Near 3,673 As Stocks Push Deeper Into Record Territory

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Dollar Stays Under Pressure As Peso Tests New Lows And Mexico Stocks Push Higher

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Argentina’s Peso Holds a Tight Blue Premium as the Merval Digests a Record Spike

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Chile Markets Morning Update: USD/CLP Presses New Lows As IPSA Stays Hot

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Note: Crypto markets remain cautious after recent forced selling.