Key Points

• Argentina says 2025 ended with a 1.4% primary surplus and a 0.2% financial surplus.
• Officials credit real spending cuts, targeted aid increases, and tax reductions.
• The headline is powerful, but definitions and durability will decide credibility.

Argentina is trying to turn a budget result into a credibility reset. The Economy Ministry says 2025 ended in surplus, even after interest payments.

The primary balance was 1.4% of GDP. The financial balance was 0.2% of GDP. In pesos, the ministry reports AR$11.769 trillion ($8.1bn) primary and AR$1.453 trillion ($1.0bn) financial.

The stress test is December. Officials say the month ended with a primary deficit near AR$2.87tn ($2.0bn). The financial deficit was near AR$3.29tn ($2.3bn). Seasonality is normal, but it tests whether the surplus is structural.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo says the cushion came from spending restraint. He says primary spending in 2025 was 27% lower than 2023 in real terms. He argues targeted assistance rose instead of being squeezed.

Argentina’s 2025 Fiscal Surplus Marks A Turn, With 2026 The Real Test

Argentina’s 2025 Fiscal Surplus Marks A Turn, With 2026 The Real Test

Caputo says AUH and the Alimentar card rose 43% in real terms, comparing December 2025 with December 2023.

He says benefits covered 92% of the basic food basket, up from 55%. Officials also say transfers were paid directly, bypassing intermediaries.

The government adds that it cut taxes while keeping the anchor intact. It estimates tax reductions above 2.5% of GDP since 2024, including lower trade duties. It also says the 2026 budget targets a 1.2% primary surplus.

Why should outsiders care. Fiscal control can reduce money-printing pressure and steady inflation expectations.

Forecasts put 2025 inflation near 31%, with 2026 seen around 25%. Polling also sees growth slowing to 3% in 2026 after 4.3% in 2025.

The next test is external financing. Analysts tie credibility to market access, with the government eyeing a foreign issue below 10%.

Critics warn that definitions can flatter results if interest costs shift into instruments. Supporters reply the outcome is IMF-friendly, near a 1.3% primary target.