Labor’s federal budget is falling flat with its target demographic, as millennials say they would rather vote for One Nation than Labor or the Greens, and gen Zs remain mostly oblivious to the proposed tax changes.
According to a Redbridge poll published on Sunday night, among millennials, One Nation is now out-polling Labor, at 30 per cent compared to 28 per cent, though its share of the primary vote remains at just 10 per cent among gen Z voters.
However, just 6 per cent of gen Z self-reported that they had noticed “a great deal” about the budget, while 47 per cent claimed they had not noticed “very much”. Fourteen per cent said nothing at all.
Redbridge director Tony Barry said: “Those that do know about the budget, don’t like it.”
“It’s as if Labor designed a budget to turbocharge more anti-establishment sentiment and pump up One Nation’s tyres.
“Labor is losing the conversation about the budget and have a lot of ground to cover to improve voter perceptions and recover that lost primary vote.”
Tony Barry is a former Liberal Party strategist. (Four Corners: Greg Nelson)
According to the Redbridge survey, assessments of the budget across all demographics were “broadly negative” with “a plurality of voters believing it will be both bad for the country as a whole and bad for them personally”.
While the youngest voters remain the most optimistic, 58 per cent of gen Zs responded that they thought Australia was heading in the wrong direction.
Budget designed for the kids
While politicians insist they do not pay attention to opinion polls, the Redbridge results will no doubt trouble Labor strategists and MPs, who designed the federal budget with intergenerational equity in mind.
The government has repeatedly stated the combined impact of the negative gearing and capital gains tax discount changes will enable 75,000 first home buyers to enter the market over investors.
Treasury modelling released over the weekend suggests home ownership has fallen by 3 per cent, or 280,000 homes, since the Coalition introduced the 50 per cent CGT discount in 1999.
Of that, the fall in home ownership has most acutely affected young people.
The government says the budget measures will enable 75,000 first home buyers to enter the market over the next decade. (ABC News: John Gunn)
“We know supply is the main game, but tax policy plays an important role,” Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.
“These are hundreds of thousands of hardworking Australians who don’t know what it’s like to live in their own home because the Liberal Party locked them out.”
While the government expected backlash against its proposed tax changes from investors and the business sector, rejection from younger voters was not anticipated.
As Labor talks about access to housing, financially savvy gen Z and millennial influencers have taken to social media to lament the higher taxation of their shares.
“We’ve got some really big challenges that we’re facing here in Australia, an aging population, serious productivity problems, and a generation of young people who no longer think they’ll be able to own their own home,” Housing Minister Clare O’Neil told ABC’s Insiders on Sunday.
“We’re tackling those changes and we’re doing it the right way.”
One Nation most popular party
While Labor’s budget sell appears to stall, One Nation is building on recent momentum to overtake both Labor and the Coalition as the most popular party in the country, with 31 per cent of the primary vote.
One Nation set to become federal opposition, poll forecasts
Labor’s primary vote dropped by three points to 28 per cent, while the Coalition’s primary vote dropped two points to 20 per cent.
While, overall, Anthony Albanese maintains a six-point lead over Pauline Hanson as preferred prime minister, that was not the case among gen X voters, who represent One Nation’s strongest support base.
Senator Hanson leads as preferred prime minister among gen X with 30 per cent, compared to 27 per cent for Mr Albanese and 14 per cent for Angus Taylor.
The One Nation leader told Sky News she would not rule out running for a seat in the House of Representatives at the next election. By convention, the prime minister is a member of the lower house.
“Do I want to be prime minister? Well, I’ll tell you what, I won’t knock the job … because I believe that I have the ability to do it,” Senator Hanson said on Sunday.
“I am not going to underestimate myself and say, ‘I can’t do it,’ because, you know, have a look at what we’ve got now.”
Referencing One Nation’s historic victory in the recent Farrer by-election, she said, “This isn’t just a Coalition problem. It’s about Labor, it’s about the Greens, it’s about everyone.”
“There’s such an undercurrent that’s happening in this country, that people are fed up and they want change.”
