The worst-case oil scenario has been avoided, but inflation and slower growth continue to weigh on the global economy.
More than 100 days into the Iran conflict, 20 percent of the world’s energy flows remain disrupted, with the scenario described as the biggest supply shock in history.
For now, the nightmare scenario has been avoided. Oil prices are still at approximately $100 a barrel.
Many analysts have warned that a prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could send oil above $200 a barrel, triggering a global economic crisis.
Various countries have released their strategic reserves, exporters have found alternative routes and weaker demand has helped contain prices. But the buffers are thinning.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warns the economic impact could linger well into 2027, even if the conflict ends tomorrow.
Published On 9 Jun 2026
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