Photo: (left) Florian Gaertner/Photothek via Getty Images, (center) Andrew Harnik/Getty Images, (right) Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

By Meduza

HAVANA TIMES – Democrats swept Tuesday’s midterms, giving them control of Congress when the new term begins in January. Among the incumbents ousted were several Republicans who had openly opposed aid to Ukraine, including Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania.

At the same time, Ukraine lost some of its most experienced allies in Congress, including Brian Fitzpatrick, the Republican co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus. Speaking on Meduza’s daily podcast, Russian political scientist Pavel Sharikov said Fitzpatrick’s departure doesn’t mean Ukraine is losing an ally in that seat, but it will cost Ukrainian lobbyists the ties they spent years building with his office. “Now he’s gone,” Sharikov said.

In her Kyiv Post analysis, Ukrainian political scientist Lesia Dubenko wrote that while the Democrats replacing key Republican allies may vote the same way on Ukraine, “building comparable committee experience, influence within their party, and cross-party relationships takes time.”

The Dems get the cards

Sharikov said the Democrats’ victory was bad news for Moscow. During the Cold War, he noted, Republicans were traditionally seen as the hawks when it came to the Soviet Union. But that dynamic has since flipped. “Democrats are now much more aggressive toward Russia than Republicans,” he said.

President Donald Trump still has considerable sway over foreign policy, but Congress controls federal spending. When the new Congress convenes in January, Democrats can bring new military and financial aid for Ukraine to a vote. Trump has largely halted direct U.S. aid to Ukraine, but support from both parties could give Congress enough votes to override a presidential veto, according to Reuters.

Democrats will also have more power to challenge Trump’s dealings with Moscow. Representative Gregory Meeks, a Democrat likely to chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has already introduced bipartisan legislation to block Trump’s deal to import Russian diesel, Politico reported.

And Democrats plan to investigate overseas business deals involving two of the people Trump has entrusted with his attempts at diplomacy: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. As Sharikov pointed out, the president still hasn’t appointed ambassadors to Moscow or Kyiv. Instead, he’s relied on Witkoff and Kushner, neither of whom has gone through Senate confirmation hearings. In October, The New York Times reported that an oil deal raised questions about potential conflicts of interest for the two men in talks with Moscow.

Sharikov said he couldn’t predict whether the election would change Moscow’s approach to negotiations. So far, he noted, Moscow has largely waited for Washington to make the first move.

The Kremlin, for its part, downplayed the significance of the results. “President Trump continues in office, and we sincerely hope that he will continue his peacemaking efforts as well,” spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said. Asked whether the new Congress would get in Trump’s way, Peskov called it “an internal U.S. matter.”

As for Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope that the election results would bring more U.S. aid. “I am also grateful to the Republicans, but the Democrats speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine and providing assistance to Ukraine,” he said. “There is hope that a balance of power will emerge and that we will receive more support.”         

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