UNEP Gap Report warns steep emission cuts needed by 2035 to limit global warming
AKIPRESS.COM –
To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the world must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 compared to 2025 levels, according to the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2026 published on Oct. 21.
Under a minimal overshoot scenario, global temperatures are projected to peak at 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius by mid-century before returning to 1.5 degrees or below by 2100, a trajectory requiring the permanent removal and storage of around 320 billion tons of carbon dioxide over the century. Current policies put the planet on track for 2.8 degrees of warming by 2100, while full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions would limit warming to 2.6 degrees, or 2.1 degrees if net-zero pledges are fully met.
Achieving the 1.5-degree pathway demands an average annual emission reduction of 5.7% between 2025 and 2035, alongside accelerated phase-outs of fossil fuels. By 2035, coal supply must decrease by at least 55%, oil by 15%, and natural gas by 5% relative to 2025 levels, accompanied by a 25% drop in methane emissions.
Despite these hurdles, UNEP highlighted rapid growth in renewable energy, noting solar photovoltaic capacity expansion has surged sevenfold since the Paris Agreement.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed that temporary temperature overshoots can still be minimized through urgent, scaled-up climate action.
