Expert explains challenges of predicting election outcomes
LINCOLN, Neb. (KLKN) — With Election Day just over a week away, political polls are offering voters a glimpse of where races stand across the country. But while polling can help identify trends, the results don’t always accurately predict election outcomes.
Timothy Hill, a political science professor at Doane University, says one of the biggest challenges facing pollsters is getting enough people to participate.
“A lot of it comes down to: Are people who are coming out to vote simply not picking up the phone? It’s very hard to get anyone to pick up the phone these days,” Hill said.
With fewer people responding to surveys, it becomes more difficult for polling organizations to ensure their results accurately represent the voters who will ultimately cast ballots.
Ahead of the Nov. 3 election, some polls suggest competitive races in states that have traditionally favored Republicans.
“Nebraska is in play, Kansas is in play, people are showing up in Mississippi. Places that I never would believe would be the least bit competitive, which doesn’t mean that Democrats are necessarily winning their races,” Hill said. “But the very fact that Democrats dare to hope, and Republicans feel that they need to sort of protect that space, that tells a certain story by itself.”
While polls can give voters an idea of where a race stands, their accuracy can vary.
Hill says voters should consider which organization is conducting a poll when deciding how much confidence to place in the results.
“Generally speaking, if it’s done by a mainstream polling outfit or with a sort of mainstream news organization attached to it, those are organizations that are at least trying to get accurate results,” Hill said.
However, even polls conducted by established organizations cannot guarantee what will happen on Election Day.
“Any poll is a single snapshot in time; if you have one poll, it could always be sort of an outlier; it could always have something wrong with it,” Hill said.
Hill recommends looking at multiple polls rather than relying on a single survey to better understand the overall direction of a race.
Voters will soon have an opportunity to see how closely polling numbers reflect the actual results when Election Day arrives Tuesday, Nov. 3.
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