Tonga could have more time to protect livestock, crops and rural communities from drought if authorities measured soil moisture rather than relying primarily on atmospheric conditions, agricultural scientist Dr Siosiua Halavatau says.

The former agriculture minister says an earlier warning could have helped communities in Ha’apai respond before drought impacts became severe.

In an interview with ABC Pacific published yesterday, Dr Halavatau said he surveyed communities in Ha’apai in August and found livestock losses were already affecting residents, with some potentially facing relocation.

“If we had followed the method we have been suggesting, that drought could have been declared a few weeks earlier,” he said.

Why soil moisture matters

Dr Halavatau argues that measuring moisture in the soil could help identify drought conditions earlier, giving authorities and communities more time to act before agricultural losses worsen.

Atmospheric conditions, including rainfall, are important indicators of drought. However, the approach he advocates would place greater emphasis on how much moisture remains available in the soil, which directly affects plants and agricultural production.

An earlier declaration could give farmers and livestock owners more time to protect their animals, manage water supplies and prepare for prolonged dry conditions.

Drought threatens communities

The warning comes as Tonga faces a worsening drought outlook associated with El Niño.

Tonga Meteorological Services reported on 12 October that very dry conditions were likely across the country from October to December, raising concerns about continued pressure on agriculture and household water supplies.

Ha’apai is particularly vulnerable because prolonged dry weather can affect livestock, crops and communities that depend on rainwater.

The Government has already deployed drought relief supplies to Ha’apai, including water tanks and other essential assistance, following an earlier drought declaration.

What needs to change?

Dr Halavatau’s comments raise questions about whether Tonga’s drought monitoring and declaration procedures provide sufficient warning for communities to prepare.

The available information does not establish whether authorities will adopt his proposed approach, how soil-moisture measurements would be incorporated into the existing system, or what resources would be required.

Those details matter because earlier detection is useful only if warnings lead to timely action.

For communities in Ha’apai, the priority is to ensure drought warnings translate into practical support before livestock, crops and household water supplies are seriously affected.