Jakarta, IO – In the beginning, some perceived Iran’s counterattack against the assault by the United States and Israel as a struggle for sovereignty and national survival. From the death of Supreme Leader Ayatullah Imam Khamenei, the 28 February 2026 school massacre in Minab, Hormozgan Province, which murdered 156 civilians – mostly children – to the destruction of critical infrastructure, such as roads, railways, power facilities, and desalination plants in Southern Iran, Iran’s resistance against this aggression clearly illustrated a nation’s effort to defend its dignity and territories.
On the other side, Iran’s continuous strikes against its neighbors exacerbate the regional economic crisis and generate more pressure on global economies, especially those of developing countries. Foreign trade figures of the *&& for the first half of 2026 for example could be considered alarming. Based on the ITC database, the region’s export value to the world declined significantly, from US$ 1.1 billion in January 2026 to US$ 0.66 million in July, for an average monthly decrease of 0.1 percent. IMF’s study (2025) on GCC countries found that Trump’s steel import policy of a 10-25 percent tariff in March 2025, which was further raised to 50 percent in June 2025, directly affected Bahrain, Oman, and UAE exports to the United States.
If we look at more details, aluminum has become one of the top fiYe exports of the GCC, along with dairy produce (HS code 04), natural or cultured pearls, precious and semi-precious stones (HS code 71), vehicles other than railway (HS code 87), nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances (HS code 84). These major GCC export commodities continued to decline during the first semester of 2026. Exports of vehicles other than railway, its parts and accessories (HS code 87), an industry including the automotive sector, which is deeply integrated into the global value chain, dropped dramatically from US$ 50 million (Jan 2026) to US$ 15 million (Mar 2026), and then bounced back, to US$ 26 million (Jun 2026). In other words, this article argues that a prolonged dispute between Iran, the US, and Israel is detrimental to the future of the region’s economic prospects, including for Iran itself.
Outside the region, developing countries have done their best to cope with the rising energy prices, affected by the ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and now the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which respectively holds 20 percent of energy transshipment, 11 percent of maritime oil trade, and 8 percent of global LNG supply. Indonesia, home to about 3 percent of the world’s population, for example, saw middle-income households face a surge in non-subsidized fuel costs of around 30 percent in June 2026. Likewise, industries should recalculate their production costs, since industrial fuel also jumped from about IDR15,000 to around IDR29- 30,000, according to the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (IPOA), including a rise of around 30 percent in fertilizer costs, putting more pressure on the country’s economy. Meanwhile, the Government continued maintaining fuel subsidies for low-income people.
At a global level, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (April 2026) projects lower economic growth of 3.9 percent in most emerging markets and developing economies in 2026, down from 4.5 percent (2024) and 4.4 percent (2025). There must be multiple factors shaping this declining growth trend; however, among them are the consequences of a widening war between Iran and the US and Israel, which constrain global trade flows and result in energy price volatility.
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Good Neighbors Looking After You
This situation could be anticipated not to widen and could work to exert stability to the region, since Iran and Arabian Gulf Countries share strong social values of respecting neighbors. Iranian (Persian) culture is renowned for its respectfulness toward social values in daily life. A number of studies have acknowledged this critical social modality, including the significance of neighborhoods in Iranian social relations (Mirgholami, Hashempour, and Haghbayan 2024). There is also a popular sociocultural value in Iran, known as “Taarof”, which is considered a core in promoting social interactions. It is further explained in the work of Shiri (2023) and Soleimanifar (2024)socioeconomic status, and geographic variation. To do so, I recruited a total of 96 research participants (within the age group of 30 to 40 years old that taarof contains a social spirit of respecting, delivering hospitality and showcasing dignity in various Iranian social settings. Taarof, as a basic social idea of polite communication styl
Similarly, the rich Arab sociocultural norms also highly value neighborliness as a main characteristic of Arab social life. Among these, for example, the principle of husn al-jiwar (the protection of neighbors) is associated with a decision-making process in Arab social communities that underscores a consensus approach without harming one another, and fosters a sense of belonging and security among communities (Cheddadi and Rifky 2024). Even toward strangers, Arab cultures haveinherited a value of respect and good behavior, to demonstrate kindness and generosity (Zaman 2020). With the inception of Islam, it became compulsory for Muslims to provide their most hospitable treatment towards their neighbors, taking care of and respecting them (Harpci 2020).
Disallow the Region Drowning into a Battleground
Given the many valuable and strong shared social norms between Persian and Arabian cultures, countries in the region haYe significant potential to institutionalize them as regional norms to enhance more cohesive and sustained development in the region. Emphasizing talks and dialogue among neighbors, rather than military confrontations, should become a means of maintaining good relations in the Gulf and Middle East. Some diplomatic protocols may be needed to make this more workable, with the support and agreement of all countries. With a spirit of politeness and respect, external-power provocation should not trap countries in the Gulf and Middle East region in further rows and disputes. At the same time, good neighbors build trust by protecting each other from potential external forces that could drag their homes into a deeper battleground.
