Michigan stole victory from Western Michigan in the season opener. In a sign of the college football times, the game’s final decision may come down to a judge’s ruling.
The fallout of Michigan’s 13-12 victory has been like that of a loss. The Wolverines fell out of the Associated Press top-25 poll and are heavy underdogs in their home game against No. 11-ranked Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon.
Market trends on Kalshi have swung drastically in Oklahoma’s favor, particularly after the Sooners thrashed UTEP 51-0 on Friday.
How Kalshi moneyline markets on Oklahoma-Michigan have moved
Oklahoma defeated Michigan 24-13 in the teams’ game in Norman last year. With first-year coach Kyle Whittingham and the perceived growth of quarterback Bryce Underwood, the Wolverines entered the season as a popular pick to get back to the College Football Playoff.
The Wolverines were a favorite to beat Oklahoma with a 50.6% probability on Aug. 26, and the game was considered a coin flip as recently as the afternoon of Sept. 2.
The Sooners’ margin widened after they held the Miners to 86 passing yards Friday night. Their probability spiked further, peaking at 68.7% early Monday morning, after the Wolverines were a controversial Hail Mary from an 0-1 start.
The markets have swung back to Michigan. The Wolverines have about a 34% probability of winning, with shares on them trading at about $0.34 apiece. Oklahoma is listed as a 5.5-point favorite on Kalshi with a 49% probability of covering.
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Why Michigan could win
Price per share: $0.34 at Kalshi
The Wolverines can win if they show why they were ranked No. 16 in the preseason poll.
Despite the negative vibes and discourse this week, the Wolverines are still 1-0 entering their noon showdown against Oklahoma.
Each week is its own animal in college football, and what happens one Saturday doesn’t dictate what will happen the next. Underwood had a rough night, turning the ball over twice, including a costly fourth-quarter fumble, but still executed the final drive to perfection, even if Michigan may not have deserved that last play.
The Michigan defense was solid, keeping Western out of the end zone and limiting the Broncos to 221 total yards. If the Wolverines can do that to OU, they definitely can win.
Why Oklahoma could win
Price per share: $0.67 at Kalshi
Oklahoma can win if its defense can kick Michigan while it is down. The Sooners flummoxed Underwood a year ago, holding him to 142 passing yards and a 37.5% completion percentage in a 24-13 win.
Of course, the Sooners and Wolverines have almost entirely new rosters since then, and Underwood has a new coaching staff. However, OU’s defense is much better than WMU’s, and if it wreaks havoc on Underwood and the Michigan offense the same way the Broncos’ defense did, this could be a blowout.
How Kalshi works
All trades on Kalshi are peer-to-peer, which means all share prices are what shares are selling for at a specific time.
There are multiple ways to trade on Kalshi. You can treat it like sports betting by purchasing shares on an outcome, then root for it to happen.
If you do that, all winning shares will settle at $1 apiece. That means Michigan is a great value play, since its $0.34 share price will pay out $0.66 profit per share if the Wolverines upset the Sooners.
But Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange, which means it invites day trading as you would on the stock market. For example, if you bought shares in Michigan at $0.34 apiece, you could turn around and sell them at $0.40 to accrue a profit.
Trading is allowed at any point before markets settle, and you can be sure some Western Michigan traders are glad they sold their shares before Underwood’s miracle heave to J.J. Buchanan.
That means you can buy and sell shares continuously in the lead-up and even during the game before the market settles.
Note: Event contracts trading involves risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Prediction markets content is not intended for individuals located in jurisdictions where they are prohibited.
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