Week 1 of the College Football season is officially underway, and the Ohio State Buckeyes campaign kicks off this afternoon, Saturday, September 5, 2026, against the Ball State Cardinals in what should be a controlled outing for Ryan Day and Co.
The excitement of the football season will circulate for each program, but teams like Ohio State tend to draw more attention thanks to the headlining talent that people want to tune in for. This year, that comes in the form of QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith, the two highest vote-getters in the 2025 Heisman race who return to college football this season.
Neither will cement themselves for the award this Saturday against a MAC opponent, but a hot start to the season is the perfect way to boost their chances of potentially ending up in New York this December for a chance to be named College Football’s top player and the recipient of the 2026 Heisman Trophy.
Other contenders have already gotten off to a hot start, as Miami’s Darian Mensah threw for 401 yards and five touchdowns against Stanford. USC’s Jayden Maiava should be in the mix, as he’s been hyper-efficient, throwing for five touchdowns and 635 yards through the Trojans’ first two games with an 88.9% completion rate.
Ahead of kickoff, let’s dive into how the latest trade markets view Sayin and Smith’s chances of taking home the hardware this season.
Current 2026 Heisman odds
PlayerYes ChanceYes CostNo CostDarian Mensah15%21¢91¢CJ Carr11%11¢90¢Arch Manning10%10¢91¢Trinidad Chambliss8%8¢93¢Dante Moore7%8¢93¢Julian Sayin7%7¢94¢Malachi Toney7%7¢94¢Jayden Maiava6%5¢96¢Jeremiah Smith6%6¢95¢John Mateer5%5¢96¢Josh Hoover4%4¢97¢
Miami quarterback Darian Mensah was the leading favorite when we last reported on the Heisman trade markets, and that has only increased following the Duke transfer’s impressive performance against Stanford Friday night.
Pairing with that, Jeremiah Smith has been passed as the top non-quarterback on the list by Miami wideout Malachi Toney, who went nuclear on Friday with 12 receptions, 234 yards, and three touchdowns.
Last year it was Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza who won the trophy, and he posted a Week 1 stat line of 193 passing yards, 33 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown. So, while a great opening performance can be huge for gaining momentum, it’s important to remember that there are still at least 11 other games for these athletes to produce in this season.
Regardless, that won’t stop traders on Polymarket or Kalshi who seem to be riding the momentum of quarterbacks to take home the trophy this season. Eight of the last ten winners have been QBs, so it’s not a bad idea to back your favorite passer if you intend to trade on this market.
Even after a 400-yard performance, Mensah being at only 15% shows there are still plenty of split opinions around the country about who could be awarded the trophy at the end of the year. Now is a great time to stake your claim for a potential big payout, which could dwindle as we get later into the season.
Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith 2026 Heisman odds
PlayerPolymarket Yes ChancePolymarket Yes / No CostKalshi Yes ChanceKalshi Yes / No CostJeremiah Smith6%14¢/ 94¢6%7¢/ 94¢Julian Sayin7%11¢/ 96¢7%7¢ / 94¢
Following the first slate of Week 1 games, the Buckeyes quarterback now sits at 7% on Kalshi to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy. His percentage is similar on Polymarket, but the trade market is skewed with the recent influx of wagers.
Those looking for the best value to trade on Jeremiah Smith should head over to Kalshi, where the wideout sits at 6% of traders. With back-to-back seasons over 1200 yards, it’s hard to imagine the pass catcher won’t continue to contend for the award.
Sayin’s appeal will be similar to why Maiava has been moving up trade markets through the first two weeks of the season. Efficiency and dependability. While the Buckeyes passer isn’t blowing people away with his natural tools, he shows elite football IQ and uses it to capitalize on the depth of surrounding talent.
Last season, Sayin was neck-and-neck with Mendoza heading into Conference Championship weekend. If the Buckeyes were able to put together a victory in that outing, it very easily could’ve been Sayin hoisting the trophy at the Lincoln Center.
Smith is an undeniable talent and likely a top-five pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. However, this season sets him up for his best opportunity yet to potentially compete for the Heisman Trophy.
Last season, Smith was playing opposite of Carnell Tate, who racked up 51 receptions and 875 yards on the season. This year, Smith is the clear and uncontested priority in this offense, which could help his already impressive production take another leap forward.
Other Buckeyes to consider ahead of kickoff include running back Bo Jackson, who has a 1% implied probability on both platforms.
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