Brunei Darussalam must continue safeguarding its fiscal buffers while stepping up economic diversification efforts to strengthen resilience against external shocks, according to the latest assessment by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
In a press release titled “Brunei Darussalam: Preserving Fiscal Buffers and Advancing Diversification for Economic Resilience”, AMRO highlighted that while the Sultanate’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable, its heavy reliance on the oil and gas sector continues to expose the economy to global commodity price volatility.
The assessment follows AMRO’s Annual Consultation Visit to Brunei held from June 10 to 18, 2026, where the mission engaged with key government agencies and stakeholders to evaluate the country’s economic outlook and policy priorities.
Moderating growth, stable outlook
Brunei’s economic growth is expected to moderate in the near term, aligning with a more sustainable pace following recent rebounds in energy production. This outlook reflects both global uncertainties and structural factors tied to the nation’s hydrocarbon-based economy.
Despite these headwinds, AMRO noted that Brunei continues to benefit from a stable macroeconomic environment, supported by low inflation and a strong external position. Previous assessments have also pointed to robust recovery momentum driven by oil and gas activities alongside steady growth in the services sector.
Importance of fiscal discipline
A key recommendation from AMRO is the need to preserve fiscal buffers, which serve as a critical safeguard against fluctuations in global energy prices and economic shocks.
Fiscal buffers, built largely from hydrocarbon revenues, have historically enabled Brunei to maintain stability during downturns. However, AMRO cautioned that prudent fiscal management will remain essential moving forward, particularly as global conditions become increasingly uncertain.
Strengthening fiscal frameworks and ensuring efficient public spending were identified as important steps to sustain long-term economic health.
Diversification remains a priority
AMRO emphasised that advancing economic diversification is central to enhancing resilience and reducing dependence on the oil and gas sector.
Efforts to expand non-oil and gas industries, attract investment, and support private sector development are seen as key drivers of future growth. This includes strengthening sectors such as services, manufacturing, and emerging industries aligned with Brunei’s long-term development goals.
The report also highlighted the importance of improving productivity, investing in human capital, and fostering innovation to support a more dynamic and competitive economy.
Building resilience for the future
As Brunei progresses towards its Wawasan 2035 aspirations, AMRO underscored the need for a balanced policy approach that combines fiscal prudence with structural reforms.
By maintaining strong fiscal buffers and accelerating diversification efforts, the Sultanate is better positioned to navigate global uncertainties while securing sustainable and inclusive growth.
AMRO, an international organisation that monitors and assesses macroeconomic and financial developments across the ASEAN+3 region, continues to serve as a policy advisor to member economies, supporting efforts to strengthen stability and resilience across the region.
THE BRUNEIAN | BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN
