South Africa’s diesel motorists are on course for another painful month at the pumps, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data pointing to increases of more than R1.60 per litre when fuel prices are adjusted next week.
While petrol users are still expected to receive a small reprieve, diesel has suffered a dramatic reversal in recent weeks as international oil prices surged, leaving truckers, farmers and businesses facing sharply higher fuel costs.
Latest fuel price projections
According to the CEF’s daily fuel price data as of 29 July 2026, the expected adjustments are:
FuelExpected changePetrol 93Decrease of 12c/litrePetrol 95Decrease of 6c/litreDiesel 0.05%Increase of 176c/litreDiesel 0.005%Increase of 159c/litreIlluminating paraffinIncrease of 139c/litre
These remain projections, with the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources expected to announce the official fuel price adjustments before they take effect on Wednesday, 5 August 2026.
Oil price surge drives diesel higher
The outlook for diesel has deteriorated as renewed geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran have fuelled concerns over oil supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Around one-fifth of the world’s seaborne crude oil passes through the strategic waterway, meaning any threat to shipping quickly feeds into higher international oil prices.
At the time of publication:
- Brent crude: $89.94 per barrel
- Rand/US dollar: R16.53/$
Diesel has been particularly hard hit because its price closely follows international distillate markets, which have risen sharply alongside crude oil.
Higher costs likely to filter through the economy
The expected diesel increase is likely to be felt well beyond filling stations.
Because diesel powers much of South Africa’s freight, agricultural and logistics sectors, higher pump prices typically translate into increased transport costs, which are often passed on to consumers through higher prices for food and other goods.
Recent inflation data has already shown transport costs becoming a significant contributor to rising consumer prices.
Fuel security in focus
Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile global energy markets, Cabinet has approved the publication of South Africa’s draft Strategic Petroleum Stocks Policy.
The proposal would require licensed fuel wholesalers and importers to maintain emergency fuel stocks equal to 21 days of supply, while government strategic reserves would gradually increase from 60 days to 90 days of net fuel imports.
The move comes as South Africa relies more heavily on imported fuel following the closure of several domestic refineries.
Final announcement expected next week
Although petrol motorists remain on track for modest price cuts, the focus heading into August remains firmly on diesel, where increases of between R1.59 and R1.76 per litre are currently projected.
The final adjustments will depend on movements in both the international oil price and the rand over the remaining days before month-end.
However, unless market conditions improve significantly, diesel users appear set for another expensive month from Wednesday, 5 August.
Latest numbers
Below, the latest projections for August 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – a decrease of 12 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and a decrease of six cents as well for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 159 and 176 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 139 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $89.94 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.53/$
