We have already entered the presidential election cycle. At this stage, scenarios are still fluid, but the main axes around which the new battle for the presidency of the Republic of Cyprus will revolve has begun to be revealed. A new chessboard, on which the game of 2023 will essentially be replayed, this time with new stakes and new data. The road is still long, yet simultaneously quite short, as it is predicted that the election campaign will begin in September.
There appear to be three levels on the scene taking place: Presidential, Pindarou and AKEL. These are the three points of focus expected for the coming period.
President Nikos Christodoulides will remain in Cyprus throughout the summer, in order to prepare for his election campaign strategy, while continuing what he has already begun: visiting communities, and contact with legal societies, in which he now investing in perhaps to an even greater extent than in 2023.
The decisive milestone will undoubtedly have to do with moves made in the coming period regarding the upcoming reshuffle, as well as the cooperative relationship with DIKO. It is unclear when President Christodoulides will proceed with the reshuffle, which will be virtually the last of the current five-year term before the elections.
It is certain, though, that any changes that take place will have their horizon of 2028. If the leaks and what is being written about sounding boards of DISY executives, whether in the periphery of the leadership or the leadership itself, aiming to possibly make them ministers, is true, then it is clear that Nikos Christodoulides is once again attempting to invest in the alarmist audience. However, according to information leaked, he has not received a positive response so far.
Beyond this, harmony in the government-DIKO cooperation is an essential element of the political equation in view of the presidential elections. This is why the way the reshuffling is handled, as well as the management of critical political issues in the coming period gain particular importance.
The second level concerns the setting of Pindarou. DISY has already begun the pre-election process, though nothing has been officially announced as of yet. Annita Demetriou and Averof Neophytou are both of obvious interest, with increasing voices suggesting that DISY should start the internal party process by autumn, so the candidate is selected before the end of the year.
The outcome of the process, who the candidate will be, and how the internal party climate will develop after the selection are particularly interesting in regards to the development of the first round where the candidate will face Nikos Christodoulides.
The third level concerns Ezekias Papaioannou. AKEL aims to act as the main pillar of a progressive alliance, similarly to the 2023 candidate Andreas Mavrogiannis. Mavrogiannis has publiclly expressed interest in being a candidate again, with no official rejection of this. The date is of course different to that of 2023, however, AKEL’s candidate will have the support to gain a place in the second round.
Beyond these scenarios, there are two more options that could influence the political scene: Odysseas Michaelides’ ALMA and Fidias Panayiotou’s Direct Democracy. ALMA has shown itself to be in line with AKEL, thus far, however in regards to the presidential elections, it seems that other scenarios are being thought over, such as autonomous descent in the first round in order to act as a bargaining chip for the second round.
On the other hand, there is still not much known about Direct Democracy. The majority depends on what decisions Phidias Panayiotou makes, but also on how much influence he will maintain until then, with everything indicating that his appeal is declining gradually.
