In Serbia, President Aleksandar Vucic seems to be reverting to his old tricks in order to dominate the political narrative. Shortly after several local elections, Vucic fired up the political rumour mill, suggesting that an early summer general election was being mooted. Since then, he appears to be quietly dropping the idea. The die is not cast, but an early summer election looks like a fading prospect.
North Macedonia also saw a bout of speculation about early elections, after the Prime Minister, Hristijan Mickoski, apparently tiring of opposition criticism in parliament, suggested that his critics would have the opportunity to find out who has more popular support “soon”.
This sparked reports that the ruling VMRO-DPMNE party was planning an early election in order to renew its term in power while its support is still high. Mickoski himself walked back the comment, saying he had merely been referring to the regular elections, due in 2028. Despite this, seasoned observers sense that early elections are being mulled, even if no firm decision has been taken.
Only Montenegro and Albania are blissfully free of election talk. Some minor hiccups within the broad ruling coalition aside, Montenegro looks focused on the big prize of EU membership. “28th by 28” was the slogan repeated by Milojko Spajic’s government, reflecting its ambitious plan to close accession negotiations by the end of this year, and so become the 28th EU member state by 2028.
There are, however, several obstacles on this path. One is the sheer technical challenge of completing accession negotiations by the end of this year. Still, where there is a will, there is a way, as previous rounds of enlargement testify. But this brings us back to a more fundamental question: does the EU actually have the will to accept a new member state, even if it’s only a small country like Montenegro, which would pose little burden on the bloc?
A decision by the EU to set up an ad-hoc group to draft Montenegro’s EU accession treaty has boosted the credibility of the EU’s proclaimed willingness to enlarge. But it also remains true that it only takes one member state to either veto, or fail to ratify, Montenegro’s accession treaty, for the whole process to get stuck indefinitely.
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