If you squint really hard, former gubernatorial hopeful Chris Jones has a chance against U.S. Rep. French Hill, according to a recent poll. And even as we write that, the word pshaw! sneaks through the keyboard and onto the screen.
Democrats have been squinting for years at the 2nd Congressional District, teased by the enthusiasm and relative liberalness of Pulaski County, but they have always ended up blinded by Hill’s light, so to speak.
A new poll, however, gives a glimmer of hope to Jones, who seems to be riding on the same wave that is providing momentum to Democrats around the country — that being the long list of problems that are being blamed on Republicans.
On Thursday, the Chris Jones for Congress campaign sent out the results of a survey that showed him ahead of Hill by 3% points, which is in the poll’s 3.5% margin of error. Still.
In the accompanying press release, Jones said he wasn’t surprised. “Are you shocked that people aren’t dying to vote for the most powerful banker in Congress?” he said. “In this economy? This is evidence of enthusiasm for a new direction in this district.”
As much of a tease as the numbers can be, with more than five months before the election, the poll findings are interesting. For one, Jones isn’t extremely well known, but then his 23% “very favorable” and 18% “somewhat favorable” numbers are well ahead of his “very unfavorable” and “somewhat favorable” numbers that combine for only 14%.
For Hill, 36% of respondents were “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” about him, but a whopping 47% were “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable” about him.
Perhaps most telling are the demographic breakdowns between Jones and Hill. Hill’s negatives are consistently strong, with “very unfavorable” and “somewhat unfavorable” numbers far surpassing his “very favorable” and “somewhat favorable” numbers in many groupings, with the reverse true for Jones.
“These demographic differences are largely expected,” stated 2040 Strategy Group, which conducted the poll. “[P]artisan differences are largest and correlated with demographics. Jones is viewed overwhelmingly favorably among Democratic and Black respondents, while many others (including Republicans) are much less familiar with him. While Hill is fairly popular among Republicans, nearly 20% of them, and most independents hold an unfavorable view of him. This generates a consistent, durable gap in base enthusiasm between the candidates. There is also a gender and age gap, with younger people and women favoring Jones at substantially higher rates than Hill.”
That 20% of Republicans who think poorly of Hill also played out in another question that was asked, that being “Does French Hill deserve to be reelected?”
Ninety-three percent of Democrats said no — nothing surprising there. Seventy-three percent of independents said no, which might be something for Hill to worry about. And while 53% of Republicans said yes, another 20% weren’t sure and 26% said no. Ouch! That’s a quarter of your relatives telling you it’s time for you to leave.
“The horse race question indicates that Jones is in the lead among voters in AR-02, with a 46-43 plurality among likely voters,” the pollster stated. “Given the baseline partisanship of the district, we were concerned that this result was driven by partisan response bias, but that does not appear to be the case. Instead, they are driven by deep dissatisfaction with Republicans among independents and soft support among Republican identifiers. Roughly 16% of Republican identifiers — the same percent that see French Hill unfavorably — say they are either undecided or likely to support Jones. Only
17% of Independents say they support Hill, and an impressive 63% of independents say they support Jones.”
The headwinds are many: Gas prices are higher than they’ve been in years, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran that was supposed to be over and done with quickly seems far from settled, inflation, affordability, farm failures — the list is long. And it all can be laid at President Trump’s feet and the Republicans that enable him. It’s not surprising that Dems are being given a good chance of doing well this fall.
“Overall, this analysis shows early support for Jones,” the pollster said in summarizing the survey. “At baseline, we note high levels of
dissatisfaction with Hill — whose favorability is lower than Trump or [Gov. Sarah] Sanders, and who likely voters overwhelmingly feel should not be reelected. These are consistent indicators that Hill is unpopular. In sum, Jones is challenging an unpopular incumbent during a period of financial stress, and the
horserace indicates that swing voters are ready for a change in representation.”
That would lead one to believe that this election cycle might be unique, but that’s been a thought before and Hill always seems to win easily.
In 2018, then state Rep. Clarke Tucker got almost 46% of the vote against him, and in 2020, then State. Sen. Joyce Elliott got almost 45%.
Even though Hill always prevailed, those little scares were enough for Republicans in the legislature in 2021 to recarve the 2nd District, splitting Pulaski County into three different congressional districts, thereby diluting votes from Democrats. Little did we know that the gerrymandering state Republicans would be so ahead of their time, which, with that happening on national level, throws another wrinkle into which party is most likely to control the House.
After the district was redrawn, Hill got 60% of the vote in 2022, and almost 59% in 2024, although Jones, having run for governor in 2022, is better known than Hill’s recent opponents. But as the poll showed, Hill still has plenty of work to do to get his name out there.
The survey was conducted between April 28 and May 8, and included 660 respondents.
