Turkey’s exports to Gulf countries fell by about 39 percent in the first 12 days after US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, while rising energy and logistics costs began putting greater pressure on the economy, exporters and analysts said.
Turkey Exporters Assembly (TİM) President Mustafa Gültepe said the decline reflected logistical disruptions and sharply higher transport and energy costs, which are weighing on foreign trade and slowing export momentum, according to remarks reported by the Karar daily.
Sectors including chemicals, food, defense and ready-to-wear were among the hardest hit.
Gültepe said the conflict was lasting longer than initially expected and warned that further escalation could deepen the impact. While no significant contraction has yet emerged in European markets, demand there could weaken if military activity continues for another two months.
Such a scenario could also affect tourism and services, alongside goods trade, as global production and consumption sentiment deteriorates and demand shifts toward essential goods.
Broader economic impact builds
Tuğrul Belli, writing on the Ekonomim news website, said the effects of the conflict are already visible across multiple economic channels, extending beyond trade to inflation, financing conditions and growth.
Higher energy prices are the main driver, affecting crude oil, refined fuel products, natural gas and petrochemical inputs such as plastics, polyester and fertilizers.
Turkey’s annual deficit in these energy-related products stands at around $65 billion, and sustained oil prices above $100 per barrel could significantly widen the gap.
In a pessimistic scenario where prices remain at current levels for 12 months, Turkey’s trade deficit could increase by more than $30 billion.
Inflation, financing risks increase
Fuel prices have already risen since the start of the conflict, with gasoline up 5.3 percent and diesel 9.1 percent.
Each 10 percent increase in fuel prices has a direct impact of about 0.4 percent on consumer inflation, rising to around 1 percent when transport costs are included.
If oil prices remain above $110 per barrel, the government may have to eliminate the special consumption tax (ÖTV) on fuel, which could further increase inflation. Under current conditions, inflation could rise by up to 5 percent.
Turkey’s credit default swap (CDS) rates have risen from around 210 basis points before the conflict to about 275, increasing external borrowing costs.
Foreign exchange reserves declined by more than $30 billion between March 2 and 16.
In a worst-case scenario, Turkey’s current account deficit could rise from $30 billion in 2025 to around $75 billion this year, exceeding 4.5 percent of gross domestic product.
Risks and limited upside
The likelihood of a prolonged conflict is increasing, with continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz expected to keep energy prices elevated and weigh on global growth.
Gültepe said disruptions in Far East-centered supply chains could create opportunities for Turkey through demand shifts closer to Europe but warned that competitiveness would depend on pricing and economic policy.
He said Turkey could achieve export growth of more than 10 percent if supportive policies are implemented, though sustaining such gains would be critical.
