The disarray unfolding across the Middle East should concern the Armenian public. The concerted attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran is an integral part of the American-Israeli effort to destabilize the region. This risk to the South Caucuses has become even more pronounced following the latest push-and-pull between Iran and Azerbaijan over reports that four Iranian drones allegedly struck occupied Nakhichevan during the early afternoon of March 5, 2026.
All of this matters for the fate of Syunik, a 4,500-square-kilometer province in Armenia that has long been shaped by its position and turned into a zone of rivalry among expansionist powers.
Every Armenian must reckon with what may lie ahead for the province that Azerbaijan repeatedly claims. Azerbaijan, a petro-aggressive neighbor, has a documented pattern of using regional instability to pursue anti-Armenian policies. Azerbaijan’s complete occupation of Artsakh was enabled not only by the concessional stance of the Armenian government but also encouraged by Russia’s involvement in Ukraine.
Attention should now turn to Syunik.
Nothing prevents Azerbaijan from attempting to capture Syunik in a manner similar to its invasion and depopulation of Artsakh. Syunik’s occupation is a potential reality despite Trump’s repeated claims that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan are “friends.”
Pashinyan may concur, but Aliyev knows that the United States has already paved the way for the Zangezur Corridor — a 43 kilometer road representing the American-Turkish project tied to Turkish Republic founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s idea of the “Gate of Turan.” In this vision, Syunik is completely depopulated of its rightful inhabitants. Without this province, Aliyev’s counterpart, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, would celebrate another step toward reviving a Turkish empire within this century.
This pattern extends across the region. In places like Iran, geopolitical struggles continue to overshadow the voices of ordinary people. The people of Iran deserve a grassroots movement through which the masses can shape their own future — something that does not interest regional powers. It is inherently impossible to build a democratic Iran with no regard for human life. Amid this imperialist chaos, it would also be unwise not to be concerned about Armenia’s security.
There are valid grounds that reports of Iranian drones striking occupied Nakhichevan may be an Israeli scheme to draw Azerbaijan into the conflict prompted by Western intervention. This possibility cannot be considered without examining the bilateral relations of Israel and Azerbaijan, which is reinforced by Israel’s significant oil imports from Baku.
Israel was the first state to congratulate Aliyev for capturing Shushi using Israeli-made drones. Since then, both governments have taken clear steps to strengthen their partnership, including the presence of at least four Israeli military bases in occupied parts of Artsakh, the ongoing deployment of Israeli weapons and cooperation on intelligence gathering.
A more assertive Baku serves Israel’s interests because it can become another flashpoint in destabilizing Iran, home to one of the world’s oldest civilianizations. Syunik finds itself on the other side of this potential crisis.
The very fact that Azerbaijan’s foreign policy is rooted in the goal of eliminating Armenians from the region adds another layer of risk if this war weakens Iran, which has been the only power to officially support Syunik’s territorial integrity. Such a scenario could open the door for Aliyev to launch a military operation under the false pretext of “liberating Western Azerbaijan,” as he did in Artsakh after September 2023.
Since then, the people of Syunik have felt far less secure than when they bordered Artsakh. In addition to having a government that emboldens this feeling by befriending a ruler who continues to illegally imprison the leadership of Artsakh and other Armenians on the sole basis of representing Armenian self-determination. The residents of Syunik connect with this fear even more as the mayor of Kapan recently confirmed that sounds of military activity can be heard clearly throughout the area.
The Armenian public at large must focus its attention on Syunik. The only way out is for Armenia to prioritize the security of its borders as the regional situation continues to deteriorate. This means Armenian citizens must elect a government committed to Armenians national interests in the next parliamentary elections, scheduled for the first Sunday of June, 2026. Beyond its other policies, the Pashinyan government will also fail to protect the republic’s population if Syunik becomes an active target of Aliyev’s belligerent ambitions.
This existential nightmare must be prevented by every Armenian who desires to preserve our ancient and sacred homeland.
