Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins
West Side
Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78. South winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 67 to 72. South winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 77. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Side
Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81. South winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Windy. Cloudy with showers. Lows 67 to 75. South winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
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Monday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 80. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
North Shore
Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Central Maui
Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81. South winds 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
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Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 69. South winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 80. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Upcountry
Today: Strong winds. Showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. Southwest winds 25 to 50 mph with gusts to 75 mph decreasing to 15 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tonight: Very windy. Showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. Southwest winds 15 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Monday: Cloudy and windy. Showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. Southwest winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
East Maui
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Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Lanai City
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Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 76. Southwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 63 to 68. Southwest winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 69 to 75. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kaunakakai
Today: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 67 to 83. Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph decreasing to 15 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 58 to 72. Southwest winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 66 to 82. Southwest winds around 10 mph becoming up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Synopsis
A strong kona storm remains north of the Hawaiian Islands generating periods of hazardous weather impacts across the state through the next couple of days. Expect a combination of threats ranging from significant flash flooding, damaging winds, isolated thunderstorms, and snow and ice over the highest Big Island summits to prevail. The highest threats for damaging winds remains along north and windward slopes of island mountains, where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. This kona storm is expected to begin lifting northeastward today into Monday, with heavy rain and strong winds easing across the Hawaii region. However, periods of unsettled wet weather in a light and variable low level wind pattern will continue across the state through next week.
Discussion
A strong kona storm positioned north of the Hawaiian Islands continues to generate moderate to heavy showers over the eastern half of the state, namely Maui and the Big Island. Persistent rainfall has resulted in island-wide flash flood warnings across the Big Island, persisting through the much of the morning. Meanwhile, conditions across the western half of the state have begun to improve, allowing several previously issued hazard products to be cancelled. However, a new rainband has developed and moved over Kauai, expected to move over Oahu later this morning. Latest guidance suggests a gradual depicts an overall downward trend in rainfall across the Hawaiian islands within the next 24 to 36 hours, as the primary rainbands shift east of the state by early Monday morning.
Based on the latest observations and model guidance, the High Wind Warning for Maui County and Big Island has been downgraded to a Wind Advisory, with exception of the summits of Big Island and Haleakala on Maui. Additionally, the Wind Advisory elsewhere was extended for portions of Kauai and Oahu, where locally strong winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 50 mph along windward sloping areas. The Wind Advisory will remain in effect until 6 PM HST this evening, to be reassessed with the next forecast cycle.
Showery conditions are expected to persist into early next week as the kona storm weakens and shifts northeast of the islands with the final push of upper-level support. As the system departs, winds across the state will steadily diminish and the coverage of heavier showers will decrease. However, a light and variable wind pattern is anticipated to develop, which will maintain periods of unsettled weather through much of the upcoming week.
The extended forecast beyond Monday remains somewhat uncertain as model solutions continue to evolve. Current guidance indicates an upper-level troughing pattern will persist across the region, supporting light and variable winds along with periodic showers and the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Toward the latter of the week, some models suggest broad high pressure may begin to build over the region, potentially allowing trade winds to return. Given the uncertainty at this range, future forecast updates will refine the expected evolution of this pattern.
Aviation
Low cigs and SHRA continue across the islands. This entire system is moving northeastward. A few isol TSTMs are possible over the Big Island. As far as the winds, they have begun to weaken slightly and veer more west-southwesterly over the western end of state but still remain gusty in some spots especially over the windward portions of those islands. Over the western end of the state S-SW 30kts or greater with higher gusts are likely through tomorrow.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all islands. It is also in effect for IFR conds for the Big Island. Conds should improve through the moving as the system moves away from the islands.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod mid-upper level turb between 130 and FL330. It is is also in effect for strong surface winds for Maui and the Big Island, as well as for turb downwind N thru E of terrain statewide. Conds should continue this morning and gradually improve west to east.
AIRMET Zulu remains in effect, as high clouds from these showers present icing concerns between 130 and FL260. These conds are expected to improve this morning.
Marine
The powerful kona storm will weaken as it moves northeast and away from the area during the next few days, with conditions improving over the coastal waters. Winds have dropped below Gale force over the coastal waters, therefore the Gale Warning has been cancelled and replaced with a Small Craft Advisory (SCA), which is in effect for all zones through 6 PM this evening. The SCA may need to be extended for portions of the waters around the Big Island tonight. Winds will ease below advisory levels across all waters by Monday and then remain light and variable Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridging is forecast to strengthen north of the islands late in the week, which should bring a return of moderate to fresh trade winds.
Strong southerly winds will keep large and rough surf in place along south facing shores today, with the surf then trending lower tonight and Monday. A new long period south swell will arrive late Monday night and Tuesday, giving a nice and extended boost to south shore surf through late next week.
A moderate sized short-period west swell associated with the kona storm will affect north and west facing shores during the next couple days, but surf will remain below advisory levels. The one exception is over west facing shores of the Big Island, where advisory level surf is expected today. As a result, a High Surf Advisory has been issued for west facing shores of the Big Island through 6 pm this evening. The short-period swell will lower Monday night and Tuesday, while a new medium-period north- northwest swell fills in. This north-northwest swell could bring surf up to advisory levels Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the swell then shifting more northerly and lowering below advisory levels Thursday into next weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain well below normal levels through the middle of the week, before trending upward Thursday into next weekend as trade winds return over and upstream of the islands.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Mountains, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Kauai North, Kauai East, Koolau Windward, Koolau Leeward, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Molokai North, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala, South Maui/Upcountry, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Flood Watch through late tonight for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Haleakala Summit, Kona, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Molokai, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Haleakala Summit, Big Island Summits.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kona, Kohala.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters,
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov
