The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Association’s 2026 Spring Climate Outlook forecasts a warm and dry spring for the Myrtle Beach area.
Meteorologist Tim Armstrong with the National Weather Service in Wilmington said drought conditions are expected to be the most impactful weather factor in the upcoming months.
“No rain fell across the area from tropical storms or hurricanes last fall and the winter featured a La Nina climate pattern in the pacific ocean,” Armstrong said. “These factors have combined to bring six-month rainfall totals to as much as nine inches below normal in Wilmington and Myrtle Beach.”
Armstrong added the Climate Prediction Center anticipates the drought caused by the rainfall deficit could last through May.
The National Interagency Fire Center reported the Southern Area of the U.S. experienced the driest November to February since at least the late 1970s and lowest-impact hurricane season in over a decade.
The outlook for the Horry County area indicates a greater than usual likelihood that significant wildland fire potential conditions through April, according to the NIFC.
“South Carolina residents may remember the destructive Covington Drive fire that burned over 2000 acres last spring. This spring’s weather conditions could support similar fire behavior,” Armstrong said.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center reported a 60-70% chance that the Carolinas will experience ‘above-normal’ temperatures through the remainder of March 2026. ‘Normal’ high temperatures for March in Myrtle Beach are 65 degrees fahrenheit, but have reached a record high of 88 degrees, according to the NWS. The weather station reported the temperature outlook for April and May are slightly toward ‘above-normal.’ ‘Normal’ high temperatures for April and May are 72 and 79 degrees with record highs of 92 and 99 degrees, respectively.
The lake at Market Common on March 9.
The day after the last spring freeze marks the beginning of the agricultural growing season and the NWS reported the average date of the last spring freeze for North Myrtle Beach and Conway is March 15. The NWS will issue frost advisories and freeze warnings in advance of any cold weather.
Armstrong said the spring season also marks the beginning of severe weather in the Carolinas; tornados, tropical storms, hurricanes and flooding.
“Historically we see two peaks in tornado activity across the area- one in March and April with severe thunderstorms, followed by another in September associated with landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes,” Armstrong said.
NOAA issues a separate annual hurricane outlook for the Southeast, typically released closer to the first day of hurricane season on June 1.
The forecasted warm weather starkly contrasts the cold temperatures and snowstorm experienced in the Myrtle Beach area during the winter season. NOAA reported that December 2025-February 2026 was unusually chilly with an average temperature of 46.1 degrees fahrenheit. The last two years’ winters rank in the top five coldest winters in Myrtle Beach since 2010.
