Key Points
- The real ended Friday slightly weaker, but held up better than many peers as Brazil’s growth and high-rate backdrop kept carry demand alive.
- Markets focused on who might lead the Federal Reserve after May, a debate that can move currencies as much as data.
- Technicals point to a choppy, headline-driven range rather than a clean trend, with thin liquidity risks around the U.S. holiday.
The dollar finished Friday a touch higher against the Brazilian real, closing near 5.3726 after trading roughly between 5.3650 and 5.3951.
It was a modest move, but it came with a clear message: Brazil’s domestic story is supportive, yet global dollar sentiment still sets the tone when U.S. politics leans into monetary policy.
On the Brazil side, the surprise was activity. The central bank’s IBC-Br index rose 0.70% in November, above the 0.30% consensus in a Reuters poll, reinforcing the view that the economy is not sliding into a soft patch.
In that environment, talk of immediate rate relief loses force. PicPay economist Matheus Pizzani argued the data reduce the risk of late-year stagnation and point to a later start for rate cuts, with March increasingly seen as a more plausible opening.
Brazil’s Real Holds Firm As Fed-Succession Politics Lift The Dollar At The Margin
Brazil’s Real Holds Firm As Fed-Succession Politics Lift The Dollar At The Margin
That higher-for-longer logic is a structural tailwind for the real. AZ Quest’s Eduardo Aun said the currency “held up well” compared with peers, helped by Brazil’s rate differential, even as the stronger activity print adds to the case against near-term easing.
The external backdrop, however, was dollar-positive. The DXY index was slightly higher late Friday near 99.383. Traders also watched Washington’s succession drama at the Fed.
Donald Trump publicly praised adviser Kevin Hassett, but prediction-market pricing still favored Kevin Warsh, with odds cited around 61% versus about 17% for Hassett.
With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May, the market treated the contest as a proxy for how independent and hawkish the next Fed could be.
Nomad’s Bruno Shahini linked the tone to a more hawkish read keeping Treasuries supported.
There were other headlines, too: easing U.S.-Iran tension, and fresh noise around Greenland and tariff threats. But with a U.S. holiday ahead, liquidity was already thinning.
Technically, the picture matches the narrative. On the four-hour chart, momentum is soft but stabilizing, with RSI below 50 and MACD only mildly negative.
The daily chart still looks like a pullback from early-January highs. The market is not breaking down. It is waiting for the next U.S. rates signal.
