Unstable politics

Politics, too, might quickly get in the way, and not only because, with municipal elections in the autumn, 2026 will be another election year. As witnessed in the weeks of difficult post-election coalition talks between ANO and its two coalition partners – the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, and the ultra-conservative Motorists for Themselves – the unity of the new government could become a daily grind.

This is due to well-established personal animosities (including between Babis and SPD leader Tomio Okamura, who was elected house speaker) and important policy differences – think ANO’s social spending enthusiasm versus the Motorists’ more orthodox budgetary views, not to mention the foreign policy divides.

“The first and most important challenge for the government will be to draw up this year’s budget,” says Filip Nerad, communications director at the Globsec think tank, reminding that Babis’s government rejected the budget proposal drafted by the previous government, and has entered 2026 under budgetary emergency.

“The coalition parties made many promises to voters during the election campaign that will be expensive to keep,” he tells BIRN. “The new finance minister [Alena Schillerova] has already stated that the deficit will probably be larger than planned.”

This is not the only immediate thorn in the side of the new coalition government. Filip Turek, the honorary chairman of the Motorists whose possible (non-)nomination to the government over spiralling scandals has been the topic of most speculation in the past few months, was a point of discussion at the New Year’s lunch between President Pavel and PM Babis, on January 7. Sticking to his position even at the risk of a competence lawsuit, the head of state rejected the formal proposal to nominate Turek as Environment Minister, putting the ball in the coalition’s court.

How Babis will manage not to alienate neither Pavel nor his coalition partners on this topic could give an idea on what to expect in the coming months. Despite clear disagreements and a lack of mutual trust, relations between Pavel and Babis – political foes during the 2023 presidential election – remain “correct… Old wounds are gone”, according to Karel Sal, an analyst at the Institute for Politics and Society, an ANO-affiliated think tank.

Meanwhile, Nerad from Globsec expects the new Czech government to remain united – at least in form – throughout the vote of confidence by the new Chamber of Deputies, in mid-January, and the vote on lifting the immunity of both Babis and Okamura, which should happen at the beginning of February.

“The coalition parties need each other to gain the confidence of the Chamber and not to lift the immunity of their leading representatives,” he tells BIRN. “Once they have secured them, they might no longer need each other so much,” he believes, which itself could pave the way towards more flexible, shifting political alliances in the lower house, and convince Babis to seek less radical partners to push through his agenda.

Key in that regard will be the various party congresses to be held this year, whose outcomes might lead to a change in leadership or breakaway movements that could prove more open to cooperating with ANO in order to reduce the influence of the SPD and Motorists.

First up will be the congress of the Civic Democrats (ODS) on January 17-18, which is set to choose a successor to Fiala after 12 years as chairman. The Pirate Party will also hold its congress on the same weekend, but any openness to work with ANO seems out of the question. The Christian-Democrats (KDU-CSL), for their part, will elect their new party leadership in April.