Use of force without clear process raises uncertainty for countries that depend on alliance predictability
President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe monitor U.S. military operations in Venezuela from Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, Jan. 3, 2026 | Image: White House via Flickr
The U.S. military operation in Venezuela is unlikely to fundamentally alter the behavior of major rivals such as Russia or China, but it sharply raises the cost for allies of having to infer U.S. intent from incomplete and often contradictory signals, a burden that falls heavily on countries like South Korea whose security and prosperity depend on alliance coordination.
The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, by U.S. forces has generated global headlines and swift condemnation from Washington’s rivals, alongside a wave of speculative commentary arguing that the operation serves as precedent for other powers.
The U.S. military operation in Venezuela is unlikely to fundamentally alter the behavior of major rivals such as Russia or China, but it sharply raises the cost for allies of having to infer U.S. intent from incomplete and often contradictory signals, a burden that falls heavily on countries like South Korea whose security and prosperity depend on alliance coordination.
The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, by U.S. forces has generated global headlines and swift condemnation from Washington’s rivals, alongside a wave of speculative commentary arguing that the operation serves as precedent for other powers.
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