Washington has been stepping up pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s government, with Trump aiming to choke off its key revenue stream. The US also designated the regime as a foreign terrorist organization, accusing it of involvement in drug trafficking. Venezuela still has the world’s largest crude reserves, but its exports, most of which go to China, now account for less than 1% of global demand.

There were also heightened tensions around supplies from another OPEC+ member, after Ukraine hit an oil tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet in the Mediterranean Sea with drones for the first time. That followed strikes on Lukoil PJSC facilities in the Caspian Sea.

The geopolitical situation has helped put a floor under oil prices, which have dropped by about a fifth this year. The declines have been driven by an oversupply as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies restored production faster than expected, while producers outside the cartel pumped more, and demand remained lackluster.

“We stick to our slightly more upbeat view on crude through the end of the year on the basis of geopolitical developments being much more supportive,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Banking Corp. However, Brent is likely to drop into the $50s next year, he said.