Dutch economic growth was “significantly higher” in 2025 than expected in the spring, the Dutch central bank said on Friday. In June, the official growth forecast was 1.1%, but it is now projected to be 1.7%, the central bank said in new autumn projections.
In particular, the economy has been less affected by uncertainty in world trade than previously expected, the bank said, adding that “trade agreements have eased international trade tensions somewhat, although economic and geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated.”
Economic growth in 2026 (1.2%) and 2027 (1.1%) is projected to be lower than this year, but growth in 2026 will also be higher than in the spring projections.
“Our economy has once again shown its resilience,” said central bank president Olaf Sleijpen. “By anticipating the trade tariffs, companies have given the economy an adrenaline boost over the past year. The government must now create the conditions for higher and lasting economic growth by removing bottlenecks.”
Although inflation in the Netherlands is on a downward path (from 3% this year to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027), it is set to remain higher than the euro area average.
In addition, the bank said average wage rises are outpacing inflation, boosting real household incomes and supporting growth in private spending. House prices are projected to rise by 8.5% in 2025 and slow in the years to come, although they will still rise more than household incomes.
The government budget deficit is projected to remain high at 1.9% this year and grow to 2.9% in 2026. This is within the EU norm, but current “fiscal policy is too expansionary given the state of the Dutch economy”, the bank said.
The projections also include a number of recommendations for the next government. In particular, officials must “vigorously” tackle constraints on Dutch growth potential by developing stable policy and solving the nitrogen emissions challenge and the overloaded energy grid.
More also needs to be done to bolster Europe’s competitiveness by taking a decisive approach that transcends national interests.
The new government must also take serious steps towards creating a future-proof tax system and reforming social security and healthcare programmes which, the central bank says, will only increase in size as the population ages.
