Uganda’s inflation story this year is less about soaring prices than about the quiet, uneasy stillness settling over the country’s factories and power stations.
After months of global uncertainty, fluctuating commodity prices, and pressure on East African currencies, Uganda’s latest inflation figures tell a subtler tale — one of an economy holding steady, but not necessarily moving forward.
According to new data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Ubos), annual headline inflation for manufacturing and utilities remained at 1.2 per cent in the 12 months leading to October 2025 — unchanged from September.
At first glance, stability might look like good news. But behind that steady number is a more complex reality of falling producer prices, slowing demand, and a utilities sector where prices continue to decline.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE NUMBERS
Annual headline inflation measures how fast prices of goods and services rise over a 12-month period. Unlike “core inflation,” which excludes food and energy, headline inflation captures everything — including the items whose prices jump around the most.
It’s the most direct snapshot of how expensive life has become. But UBOS’ latest release focuses on something more specific: producer prices, the prices that factories and utilities receive for their products.
When producer prices fall, it often signals weakening demand, squeezed profit margins, or pressure on businesses. And that is exactly what the October figures show.
MANUFACTURING: STILL UP, BUT SLIPPING
Annual inflation in manufacturing dipped to 1.6 per cent in October, down from 1.9 per cent in September. The biggest changes were in food-related manufacturing:
• Food manufacturing inflation fell to 4.7 per cent (down from 5.3 per cent)
• Sugar manufacturing plunged to 10.5 per cent (down sharply from 22.1 per cent)
• Vegetable and animal oils dropped to 3.8 per cent (from 6.0 per cent)
These declines suggest that some of last year’s price pressures — driven by global supply chain shocks and rising import costs — are finally easing.
But they also hint at weaker demand and cooling momentum in key manufacturing segments.
UTILITIES: PRICES STILL FALLING
The utilities sector continues to drag overall inflation down. Annual inflation for utilities stood at –2.4 per cent, a slight improvement from –4.7 per cent in September. Negative inflation (often called deflation) means prices are falling rather than rising.
The biggest driver? Electricity prices. Electric power generation inflation registered –5.6 per cent, up from –10.0 per cent in September. The contraction is slowing, but electricity producers are still receiving significantly less money for their output than they did a year ago.
WHAT’S BEHIND THE MONTHLY DIP?
The monthly numbers tell an even more subdued story. Producer prices fell 0.3 per cent in October, deepening the 0.2 per cent decline in September. UBOS says this means that, on average, producers received lower prices in October than the month before, continuing a short- term weakening trend.
Most of that decline came from the manufacturing sector, which saw its monthly inflation fall 0.3 per cent, compared to 0.1 per cent in September.
The steepest drop came from one unexpected category:
FISH PROCESSING
Prices for processed and preserved fish, a major export item, fell 3.3 per cent in October, compared with a 0.9 per cent drop in September.
This could have ripple effects for fishing communities along Lake Victoria and fish exporters who depend heavily on European and Asian markets. Utilities also saw a monthly fall of 0.6 per cent, driven by ongoing price dips in electricity generation.
