Brazil’s financial markets open today with the Ibovespa consolidating near record highs amid hawkish central bank resolve to anchor inflation at 3%, even as cheap Chinese imports mask robust domestic demand—evidenced by record online payments, unemployment below 7%, and rising hiring wages—that could pressure prices once the import cushion fades.

Meanwhile, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas edges closer to former President Jair Bolsonaro’s base ahead of 2026 polls, embracing tough-on-crime stances, economic liberalism via accelerated privatizations, and anti-judiciary rhetoric, signaling potential market-friendly reforms but deepening political polarization.

This unfolds against a global risk-off tone, with U.S. yields creeping higher and crypto routs dragging high-beta assets, testing Brazil’s high Selic carry appeal despite the real’s resilience near R$5.36.

Today’s key domestic focus is the IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (MoM) at 08:00 AM BRT (Cons: N/A, Prev: 0.27%), a key gauge of São Paulo consumer prices that could reveal urban inflationary heat if it accelerates, potentially reinforcing the BCB’s “higher for longer” Selic stance at 15% and capping equity upside; this matters as it underscores whether Chinese import deflation is truly taming core pressures or merely concealing demand-driven risks.

Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 2, 2025. (Photo Internet reproduction)

At 07:00 AM BRT, Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) (Cons: 0.4%, Prev: -0.4%) and (YoY) (Cons: 0.2%, Prev: 2.0%) will test manufacturing recovery amid excess inventories and weak external demand, with a beat potentially lifting cyclicals like steelmakers while underscoring capacity underutilization below 80%; these matter for gauging the sustainability of disinflation gains and fiscal targets, as softer output could widen the current-account gap despite strong FDI inflows.

Key global prints include the EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov) at 05:00 AM BRT (Cons: 2.1%, Prev: 2.1%), Core CPI (YoY) (Cons: 2.4%, Prev: 2.4%), and related HICP metrics, which could influence ECB policy divergence—if on-target, it sustains global easing bets and LatAm carry trades, but upside surprises might firm the euro and pressure EM yields.

Spain’s Unemployment Change (Nov) at 03:00 AM BRT (Act: -18.8K, Cons: -12.4K, Prev: 22.1K) signals labor resilience that bolsters EZ growth narratives, potentially easing fiscal strains and supporting commodity sentiment for Brazil’s exports.

GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Nov) at 02:00 AM BRT (Act: 0.3%, Cons: 0.0%, Prev: 0.2%) and (YoY) (Act: 1.8%, Cons: 1.4%, Prev: 2.4%) gauge UK housing momentum, with stronger prints possibly steepening the BoE path and weakening sterling, indirectly favoring BRL via reduced global risk aversion.

USD JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) at 10:00 AM BRT (Cons: N/A, Prev: 7.227M) and Construction Spending (MoM) (Sep) (Cons: N/A, Prev: 0.2%) preview labor and investment trends, critical for Fed cut odds (~high probability for December)—a softer read could accelerate dollar softening, boosting EM inflows but amplifying thin liquidity spillovers.

These matter broadly because BRL’s CFTC speculative net positions (Prev: 59.6K) at 15:30 BRT highlight crowded longs vulnerable to U.S. data surprises, while EZ/UK prints underscore growth divergence that enhances Brazil’s relative appeal amid FDI robustness ($11B in October), though hawkish BCB tones and fiscal experimentation limits cap Ibovespa pushes above 158k.

Economic Agenda for December 02, 2025

Brazil

• 08:00 AM BRT – IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (MoM) (Nov) Cons: Prev: 0.27%
• 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 2.0%
• 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.4% Prev: -0.4%
  Implication: IPC-Fipe acceleration risks entrenching hawkish BCB tilt, delaying Selic cuts and pressuring Ibovespa cyclicals; industrial beats gauge export resilience amid China slowdowns and fiscal leaks.

Mexico

• 07:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (Oct) Cons: -0.450B Prev: -2.400B
• 07:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (USD) (Oct) Cons: Prev: -0.831B
  Implication: Narrower deficit reinforces nearshoring narrative, firms peso if beats expectations.

United States

• 10:00 AM BRT – JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) Cons: Prev: 7.227M
• 10:00 AM BRT – Construction Spending (MoM) (Sep) Cons: Prev: 0.2%
• 10:00 AM BRT – Total Vehicle Sales (Nov) Cons: 15.40M Prev: 15.30M
  Implication: Softer labor/investment data locks Fed cut odds, aiding BRL inflows but heightening volatility in thin volumes.

Europe (selected key events)

• 05:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 2.1% Prev: 2.1%
• 05:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 2.4% Prev: 2.4%
• 03:00 AM BRT – Spanish Unemployment Change (Nov) Cons: -12.4K Prev: 22.1K
  Implication: On-target CPI sustains ECB dovishness, pressuring EUR lower and boosting LatAm risk-on.

Japan (selected key events)

• 00:00 AM BRT – Household Confidence (Nov) Cons: 36.2 Prev: 35.8
  Implication: Rising sentiment caps yen strength and commodity upside.

Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s IPC-Fipe and industrial data mute fiscal risks from political alignments and import-masked demand, drawing carry trades; U.S./EZ cues highlight labor divergence that bolsters Brazil’s EM appeal amid BCB hawkishness and FDI inflows for Ibovespa consolidation near 158k.

Brazil’s Markets Yesterday

The Ibovespa slipped 0.29% to close at 158,611 points on Monday, December 1, pulling back from Friday’s nominal record amid profit-taking and a hawkish central bank tone.

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U.S. Markets Yesterday

U.S. stocks started December lower, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all slipping after a strong November run, pressured by higher bond yields—the 10-year Treasury jumped around 8 bps to just above 4%, weighing on growth stocks.

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Mexico’s Market Yesterday

The Mexican peso traded near 18.31 per dollar, pausing amid Fed cut bets and U.S. tariff risks; the S&P/BMV IPC slipped 0.14% to 63,551 points.

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Argentina’s Market Yesterday

The Argentine peso held calm while banks drove the Merval higher in a tamed blue-chip session.

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Colombia’s Market Yesterday

The Colombian peso weakened to around 3,810 per dollar; the COLCAP rose 0.39% to 2,081 points near records.

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Chile’s Market Yesterday

The Chilean peso hovered around 929 per dollar; the IPSA added 0.2% to 10,144 points—its fifth straight record.

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Commodities

Brazilian Real

The real weakened modestly to near R$5.36 vs. USD as BCB’s hawkish defiance trimmed risk despite softer greenback.

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Cryptocurrencies

Crypto markets extended a rout on DeFi vulnerabilities and yen carry unwind, with Bitcoin sliding 5–8% to near $87,000.

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Companies and Market

Industry Outlook

Brazil’s factories remain stuck: high Selic rates (15%), full warehouses, and weak demand keep industrial capacity utilization below 80% despite disinflation.

Key Developments

– Cheap Chinese imports cool Brazil’s inflation but mask hot domestic demand, risking future price pressures.

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– Tarcísio de Freitas aligns with Bolsonaro’s base on crime, liberalism, and anti-judiciary fronts ahead of 2026.

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