DVB data team

Myanmar’s military regime conducted the country’s decennial Population and Housing Census between October 1 and 15, 2024, with data collection extending until the second week of December in some conflict-affected areas due to security concerns. 

More than a year later, the regime Ministry of Immigration and Population released the main census report. This article examines five key takeaways from the newly published data.

1. Census Coverage

One of the most important aspects of the 2024 census is its coverage, or in other words, its reliability. Out of Myanmar’s 330 townships, fewer than half were fully covered. 

According to the report, the census was completed in 152 townships, partially completed in 120, and not conducted in 58. 

However, when cross-checking the current report against the appendix tables of the previously published preliminary report, the figures show 145 townships with complete coverage, 123 with partial coverage, and 62 with no coverage at all. 

This discrepancy raises questions about the report’s consistency.

Because the nationwide data collection was incomplete, the overall population figures rely heavily on statistical estimates that represent nearly 20 million people. 

In comparison, the 2014 census required estimates for only about two percent of the total population. The 2024 census, carried out under the regime, depends on estimated figures for more than one-third of Myanmar’s population.

Chin State stands out as a particularly data-poor region, with an estimated 92 percent of its population based on projections rather than direct enumeration. 

These wide data gaps make it impossible to calculate many demographic and socio-economic indicators with confidence.

2. Population Size and Age Structure

According to the 2024 census, Myanmar’s population is nearly 51.4 million. Compared with the 2014 census figure of about 51.5 million, this shows a slight decline in the total population. 

Birth rates, death rates, and migration remain the main factors influencing population growth, while broader social and economic conditions also play a role. 

However, the incomplete nationwide coverage of the 2024 census raises uncertainty about the accuracy of the total population figure.

The distribution of the population by sex and age can be illustrated through a population pyramid. 

Myanmar’s population pyramid is reported to be wide at the base and gradually narrowing toward older age groups. 

The population aged 5 to 19 years is noticeably larger than other age groups for both males and females, suggesting that Myanmar has a relatively large school-age population.

3. Declining Birth Rate

Myanmar’s birth rate is 1.8, meaning that on average each woman gives birth to 1.8 children. 

This is below two children and falls beneath the replacement level, which is the rate needed to maintain the population size across generations. 

In demographic terms, the replacement level is 2.1, meaning that for two parents to replace themselves, each woman needs to have slightly more than two children.

Arakan (Rakhine) State records the highest birth rate at 2.8 children, while Yangon Region has the lowest at 1.5. 

Additionally, the adolescent birth rate among girls aged 15 to 19 has significantly declined compared with 2014.

4. Child Mortality and Life Expectancy

In Myanmar, more than 32 of every 1,000 live births die before reaching their first birthday, and nearly 40 die before turning five. 

The census report shows that Karenni (Kayah) State, Rakhine State, and Magway Region record the highest child mortality rates in the country.

Women live more than five years longer than men, with female life expectancy at about 72 years compared with 66.5 years for males. 

This gender gap in life expectancy is consistent with global trends, where women generally live longer than men, though the difference in Myanmar is relatively wide.

5. Mass Exodus of Youth Abroad

Nearly two-thirds of Myanmar citizens who have migrated to live overseas are young people aged 20 to 34. The census also shows that more than one million people from Myanmar are currently living abroad, and about seven in every 10 reside in Thailand.

The report itself notes that the census figures for international migration are likely lower than the actual number, as many people working overseas were not recorded or were difficult to reach through official data collection.

Viewed broadly, the 2024 census results show that Myanmar is facing a decline in both birth rates and overall population. 

Although child mortality rates have fallen compared with 2014, the country still records the second-highest infant mortality rate in Southeast Asia for children under one year old. In terms of life expectancy, only Laos ranks lower. 

The data also suggest that many young people are migrating abroad in search of better job opportunities.

The census is often described as the nation’s mirror, reflecting the country’s social and economic conditions. While the report claims that the 2024 census data is reliable, it also advises that the results should be treated as indicative rather than definitive due to the heavy reliance on estimates. 

The report further recommends exercising caution when comparing data across regions or between different census years and stresses the need to use the figures alongside other data sources.

Unlike smaller-scale surveys, a nationwide census should ideally provide data down to the smallest administrative units to support policymakers. 

However, in the census carried out under the regime in Naypyidaw, even township-level data is not widely accessible, and village-level information is entirely unavailable. 

As a result, the report notes that the findings can only be applied to policymaking at the national and state or regional levels.

The regime authorities who oversaw the census have emphasized that it was conducted independently without international assistance and have stated that the operation cost more than 56 billion kyats ($26,675,989 USD).