Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev has warned that the upcoming winter will be one of the most difficult in recent memory, with the country facing significant electricity shortages due to critically low water levels at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) reservoir. Toktogul is Kyrgyzstan’s largest energy facility, generating approximately 40% of the country’s electricity.
According to Ibraev, the Toktogul reservoir currently holds 10.8 billion cubic meters of water, 1.6 billion cubic meters less than in 2024, when levels were already deemed critically low at 12.4 billion cubic meters. The “dead water level,” at which the turbines can no longer operate, is 6.5 billion cubic meters.
Kyrgyzstan has struggled with persistent electricity deficits in recent years, particularly during winter when demand spikes as households depend heavily on electricity for heating. In 2024, national consumption reached 18.3 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 1.1 billion kWh over 2023. To cover the shortfall, Kyrgyzstan imported 3.6 billion kWh from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Russia.
Ibraev urged citizens to conserve electricity and stressed that Kyrgyzstan aims to overcome its energy crisis by 2028. A key pillar of this strategy is the construction of the Kambarata-1 HPP, which is set to become the largest hydroelectric facility in Central Asia. With a planned capacity of 1,860 megawatts and an average annual generation of 5.6 billion kWh, the project is expected to significantly enhance long-term energy security.
In the short term, Kyrgyzstan is banking on regional cooperation. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have all signed an agreement on coordinated water and energy management.
Under the agreement, Kyrgyzstan will release water from Toktogul for irrigation needs in downstream Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, while receiving electricity supplies from both countries through spring 2026.
The Toktogul HPP serves a dual purpose: generating electricity for domestic use and regulating water flows for agriculture in neighboring states. In winter, higher hydropower output to meet heating demand often lowers reservoir levels, threatening irrigation supplies in spring. The trilateral agreement is intended to reduce this risk by enabling Kyrgyzstan to conserve water while ensuring essential electricity imports during peak consumption periods.
