Asylum applications to the European Union and associated countries fell by 23% in the first half of 2025, largely driven by a sharp reduction in Syrian applicants following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. According to figures released on 8 September 2025 by the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA), the decline marks one of the most significant mid-year drops in recent years, reflecting substantial shifts in migration dynamics.
Sharp Decline in Syrian Asylum Seekers
The EUAA reported that 399,000 asylum applications were lodged across the 27 EU member states, as well as Switzerland and Norway (collectively known as EU+), between January and June 2025—a decrease of 114,000 compared with the same period in 2024. Syrian applications fell by 66%, totalling just 25,000 requests and placing Syrians as the third-largest applicant group behind Venezuelans (49,000) and Afghans (42,000).
The agency attributed the drop not to changes in EU+ asylum policy, but to political developments within Syria. “With the new Syrian authorities advocating for stability and reconstruction, many displaced Syrians have evidently become more hopeful about returning to rebuild their communities,” the EUAA noted. This assessment follows recent estimates from the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), which indicated that over 500,000 Syrians have returned since December 2024.
Changing Migration Patterns
The decline in Syrian applications has reshaped migration trends across Europe. Germany, previously the primary destination during the Syrian and Afghan crises, recorded a 43% decrease in asylum applications, losing its leading position to France (78,000 applications) and Spain (77,000). Italy followed with 64,000, while Greece received 27,000 applications.
Venezuelans, fleeing ongoing economic and political turmoil, now represent the largest applicant group. Nearly all Venezuelan applications were filed in Spain, driven by linguistic and cultural ties. The EUAA also noted that one in four applications came from citizens of visa-exempt Schengen countries, particularly Venezuelans and Colombians. This has prompted debate around tightening the EU’s visa suspension mechanism, with a European Parliament vote scheduled for October 2025.
Political Implications and Repatriation Talks
The drop in applications offers political relief to EU governments under pressure to curb migration, particularly in light of growing electoral support for far-right, anti-immigration parties in Germany, France, and the Czech Republic. Earlier this year, the European Commission unveiled proposals to streamline asylum rejections and accelerate deportations, in line with these political trends.
Delegations from Germany, France, and Italy have visited Damascus to explore repatriation arrangements with Syria’s interim government. Several EU countries, including Sweden and Denmark, have announced plans to deport thousands of Syrians—particularly those with criminal convictions—in coordination with Syrian authorities. Sweden’s Migration Minister, Johan Forssell, recently reaffirmed efforts to repatriate Syrians who arrived over the past decade, “with or without their consent,” in collaboration with Denmark.
However, human rights concerns remain. Reports of extrajudicial executions, sectarian violence, and widespread abuses under Ahmed al-Sharaa’s administration—including over 3,000 documented executions since December 2024—have cast doubt over Syria’s readiness to safely receive returnees, particularly among minority and vulnerable communities.
A Shifting Asylum Landscape
The EUAA described 2025 as a year of “significant shifts” in the asylum landscape. The recognition rate for first-time applications has fallen to a record low of 25%, while more than 900,000 first-instance cases remain pending. Including appeals, the total backlog exceeds 1.3 million cases, highlighting ongoing systemic pressures.
The early implementation of the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum—featuring accelerated border screening procedures—is also reshaping the asylum process, raising concerns among rights advocates about diminished access to legal protections, especially for nationalities with low recognition rates.
As Syria’s new leadership pushes a narrative of reconstruction and return, the decline in asylum applications reflects a degree of cautious optimism among segments of the displaced population. Yet ongoing violence and instability continue to temper expectations, leaving Europe to navigate a complex balance between migration control and humanitarian responsibility.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
