The economies of nine Midwestern states, including Missouri, continue to show signs of stagnation, according to a monthly survey of supply managers by Creighton University.
On the zero-to-100 scale, a score of 50 is considered growth-neutral, the midway point between an economy growing or shrinking. Creighton University economist Ernie Goss blames some of the downturn on tariffs and how they’re affecting manufacturing.
“The manufacturing economy is moving sideways, and there’s little doubt about that,” Goss said. “A lot of it, what you’re seeing with the imports for example, the president’s trade policies, in my judgment, they’re having a negative impact on our surveys.”
Looking ahead six months, the region’s Business Confidence Index fell from a score of 50 in June to below 43 in July. Goss describes himself as “a vocal critic of tariffs,” not of President Trump.
“We asked the supply managers about switching from one supplier to another and only 6.7% said they switched from international to domestic, so the idea of raising tariffs on imports to get the supply managers to buy from alternative domestically is not having an impact, much of an impact,” Goss said.
He said only one in six supply managers expect economic conditions to improve in the next six months.
The survey also shows employment losses for the region for the fourth straight month. Goss said the Midwest lost nearly 13,000 jobs during the past year, while the nation as a whole lost more than 89,000 jobs.
Radio Iowa authored this report
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